The distribution and use of water and energy generation are areas on which the normal life of each country depends. In Central Asia, this area is fraught with a huge potential for conflict, and the study of various aspects of the problem is of interest to political scientists and conflict analysts. All states in the region understand that control over water and energy resources not only ensures their own sustainable development, but is also a key lever of influence in the region as a whole.

The changed balance of power in the international arena after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the avalanche-like number of local conflicts in different parts of the world stimulated the search for adequate approaches to resolving the conflict situations that have arisen. The concept of preventive diplomacy has gained great popularity among the ways proposed by the political thought of our time to solve these problems.

In the report "An Agenda for Peace" submitted to the UN Security Council and General Assembly in 1992, the then UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali defined preventive diplomacy as "actions aimed at preventing disputes between the parties that arise, preventing existing disputes from escalating into conflicts and limiting the scale of conflicts after they arise" [Boutros-Ghali].Gali]. Since the publication of the UN Secretary-General's report, preventive diplomacy has gradually gained ground in tactical and strategic calculations and actions, especially in the foreign policy activities of individual States and major international and regional organizations that support international peace and stability. Crisis prevention has become a leading area in predictive planning of many subjects of preventive diplomacy.

The analysis of the theoretical components of the concept of preventive diplomacy and examples of its practical application, along with the analysis of the current socio-political situation in Central Asia, prove the undoubted relevance of this strategy. A detailed review of the whole range of issues related to border and territorial problems, which were mainly caused during the Soviet era, shows that they, due to their unresolved nature, have a serious destabilizing effect on the situation in the region. The problems of increasing tension between the Central Asian states on water and energy issues from year to year, which have not yet been resolved, only increase the conflict potential of the region. An important negative contribution to the current tangle of problems is made by artificial barriers at borders created for the sake of momentary interests, which make it difficult to move goods, capital and services, which in the conditions of the region, is not possible.

page 138
the lack of access to the sea increases tensions in interstate relations. Even the emerging challenges and threats of the so - called unconventional series - the expansion of the spread of radical Islam and the increase in the scale of drug aggression-have not prompted the states of the region to collectively resist these phenomena.

Thus, there is an urgent need to resolve a whole complex of contradictions. Currently, there is no real interaction between the states of the region to eliminate all the above-mentioned problems. In these circumstances, the systematic and continuous implementation of a preventive strategy aimed at gradually removing the existing tension in relations between the Central Asian countries and creating normal interstate relations focused on close integration becomes vital.

So, it turns out that the realization of the huge economic, transport and communication potential that the Central Asian countries possess, and on this basis - ensuring the national security of each of the five countries, their sustainable economic development, is hampered by the lack of coordination of approaches to solving a number of key problems, among which water use issues occupy an important place.

The distribution and use of water, on which the life of the population of each country depends, and even more so in Central Asia, is fraught with a huge conflict-causing potential. All States in the region understand that control over water resources will allow them not only to ensure their own sustainable development, but also to have a key lever of influence on the entire region, and they strive to use their existing advantages to gain access to this lever.

The problem of water resource allocation has historical roots, and it was possible to keep it within strict limits in the former Soviet Union. Under the conditions of independent development of the Central Asian states, it is becoming more acute, which is facilitated by such factors as extensive irrigation of land with irrational water use and worn-out irrigation systems, rapid population growth in Central Asian countries. If in 1956 the population of all five states was just over 20 million people, now this figure is over 50 million. So the water issue is crucial both for the prospects of further development of integration processes in the region and, conversely, for the aggravation of social problems, and its solution, taking into account the region's general interests, becomes a priority task.

The paradox of the situation is that Central Asia is considered to be one of the highest levels of water availability on a global scale. However, the inefficient use of water, the practical lack of modern technologies, and the need to constantly increase the production of food and industrial products to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population have already created acute water shortages not only in rural areas and desert areas, but also in industrial centers and foothills. In addition, as already noted, the deterioration of irrigation structures and water - saving systems built mainly in the 1960s and 1970s significantly complicates the problem. If we describe the region from the point of view of natural and climatic conditions, then its rather large area (about 4 million square kilometers) and the presence of two large transboundary river systems (Amu Darya and Syr Darya), which are part of the Aral Sea basin, provide significant potential opportunities for the normal life of each of the five countries in terms of water availability. At first glance, there should be no difficulties in solving water distribution issues. However, the fact is that the relief of the region combines vast desert and steppe plains in the territories of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, rich in hydrocarbon energy resources,

page 139
with mountain ranges. Thus, most of the territories of Tajikistan (93%) and Kyrgyzstan (about 87%) are made up of the Pamir-Alai and Tien-Shan mountain systems. This creates in the latter an acute shortage of land suitable for cultivation.

In Central Asia, agriculture is almost impossible without irrigation, and therefore, since ancient times, the channels of the main rivers and the waterways that feed them were considered the most important centers of food production. Major cities and industrial centers are located here.

In the last century, the region's agricultural sector developed at an accelerated pace. If at the beginning of the 20th century the area of irrigated land in Central Asia was approximately 2.5-3.5 million hectares, then by the end of the century the cultivated area has more than tripled and is estimated at about 8-8.3 million hectares. However, the complexity of this region lies in the fact that with a relatively small space suitable for human habitation, the population increased at a rate exceeding the global average. So, if at the beginning of the last century per capita accounted for 0.6 ha of irrigated land, today this figure is only 0.17 ha per person, while, according to experts, for the full provision of the population of the region, at least 0.3 ha per person is needed [Verhoog, 221].

Thus, already at the end of the last century, there was an acute contradiction between the need to increase irrigated areas and the limited reserves of water resources, mainly due to their irrational use. As a result, a situation has been created where, in general, rich water resources today cannot meet the needs of the region in expanding acreage and producing industrial products and electricity. According to experts, up to 90% of 170-180 cubic meters of gas is consumed in the region today. This creates contradictions both on a regional scale and within each country, depending on the demographic situation and the availability of irrigated land in certain areas.

The Soviet Union paid increased attention to irrigation of land in Central Asia mainly to increase the production of cotton, which was widely used primarily for the needs of the defense industry. Irrigation in the region developed at a very high rate during the Soviet period, and by 1994 the total water intake on a regional scale was 111.7 million cubic kilometers. Dozens of reservoirs and channels were built, such as Karakum, Kizitkent, Tashnasai, Amu-Bukhara, Karshi, Kyzylorda, Kyzylkum, Yuzhnofergansky, Bolshoy Ferghansky, Bolshoy Andijan, Bolshoy Chui Mirzachulsky, which almost indefinitely took water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya and reduced the volume of its supply to the Aral Sea.

The Soviet system of management simultaneously contributed to the creation of problems on the basis of water availability and at the same time guaranteed their mitigation. The problem was complicated by the fact that the distribution of water resources was not tied to a particular republic, but depended on the economic efficiency of the territories. It turned out that the republics themselves did not participate in making decisions on such a serious issue, on which their living conditions in the present and future depended. The center's directives did not take into account local features and climatic conditions of the region. Neglect of these issues, as we know, has created such a gigantic environmental catastrophe as the drying up of the Aral Sea, the mitigation of which now places a heavy burden on the newly independent states of the region.

In principle, Central Asia's focus on producing a monoculture such as cotton was a necessity. The climatic conditions of the region favored this, and other production facilities were concentrated in

page 140
areas where there were sufficient raw material reserves and the necessary potential. At the same time, the industry of the Central Asian region was primarily aimed at meeting the needs of cotton growing. Such a one-sided approach was fraught with the inevitable danger that the region would face a crisis in an unfavorable climate situation.

Energy development in Central Asia was also planned by the central Soviet authorities. For the sake of justice, it should be noted that this industry in the Soviet era has received great development. By 1990, the total electricity production in the region, with a population of about 50 million people, reached 189.5 billion kW.h per year [Petrov, Nazriev, 2001, p. 141]. At the same time, this industry has problems similar to those that have arisen in irrigation.

The unified energy system significantly increased the stability of energy supply in individual republics. At the same time, the placement of hydroelectric power plants in the mountainous regions of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and thermal power plants in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan ensured their mutual compensability only within the framework of this system.

The collapse of the USSR immediately caused an imbalance in the operation of the energy systems of the newly independent states, even while maintaining a virtually unified energy system within the region to this day. In addition, the energy sector of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is highly dependent on natural conditions, in particular on water levels, while in the other three countries this dependence is minimal. For example, during the spring-summer period, when there is an intense melting of glaciers, Tajikistan produces electricity that exceeds its own needs by about 2 billion kW, and in winter it experiences a shortage of about the same amount. The situation is the same in Kyrgyzstan. In Soviet times, this imbalance was covered by the redistribution of energy resources between the countries of the region.

The current situation in the water and energy sector of Central Asia is characterized by a contradiction between irrigation and energy. The countries located in the upper reaches of the rivers - Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan - are interested in using water for the development of their energy industry in order to meet their own needs and export energy to other countries, while the states located in the lower reaches-Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan-need water primarily for irrigation. Thus, the national interests of these two groups in water distribution issues come into conflict.

This is not to say that the countries of the region are not trying to find a balance of interests. The first meeting of the heads of Central Asian States on water issues was held in Nukus in 1995. A Declaration was adopted there, in which the states of the region reaffirmed their "commitments to full cooperation at the regional level based on mutual respect, good-neighborliness and determination" in order to mitigate the consequences of the crisis in the Aral Sea basin, the impact of this environmental disaster on nature and man [Diagnostic report..., 2001, p. 9].

At the same time, the peculiarities of the uneven economic development of the region's states began to manifest themselves, and differences in approaches to foreign policy problems were identified. This has exacerbated these contradictions. Signed agreements were often ignored or interpreted unilaterally to suit their own interests. A significant role in this was also played by the fact that dozens of signed agreements within the CIS remained only on paper. The same applies to a few agreements in the field of water distribution.

As a result, soil pollution, desertification, waterlogging, salinization of arable land and its degradation have become widespread. It should also be taken into account that the least developed countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are forced to bear the costs of AML / C alone.-

page 141
water management facilities of regional significance located on their territory, and the countries located in the lower reaches do not show interest in their participation in this matter. To illustrate this, it is enough to give the following example.

During the Soviet period, the water needs of the four republics of the Syr Darya River basin were met by regulating the operating mode and volume of water in the reservoirs of the Naryn Cascade located in Kyrgyzstan (among them, the largest hydroelectric power nodes are Toktogul, Kirov, Orto-Tokoy, Papan), with the priority of directing these waters to irrigation needs. This measure gave a powerful impetus to the development of the agricultural complex and the economy in general, primarily in Uzbekistan and Southern Kazakhstan. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan itself suffered losses due to this in the form of allocation of large areas of fertile land for reservoirs, non-development of electricity, due to forced discharge of water for irrigation of land in neighboring states. In return, the costs of maintaining and operating these facilities were mainly covered by funds received from the center, while neighboring republics were obliged to cover Kyrgyzstan's energy needs. This scheme operated smoothly in Soviet times. For example, in the period from 1986 to 1991, in compensation for the collection of water in the Toktogul reservoir with a total volume of 68.3 cubic meters. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan supplied Kyrgyzstan with more than 11 million tons of coal, 3.6 million tons of fuel oil, and 9.6 million cubic meters of gas [Mamatkanov, 2001, p. 106]. Such specialization and cooperation still seem quite reasonable and effective.

However, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 suddenly destroyed the decades-long experience of mutually beneficial inter-republican economic ties. The transition to a market economy caused a crisis and significantly worsened the economic situation of most of the post-Soviet states, including Kyrgyzstan. The consequences of this crisis have not yet been overcome everywhere. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan has been forced to bear the heavy burden of maintaining and operating expensive water management facilities of regional significance all these years, as noted above. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the main consumers of water from Kyrgyz reservoirs, have expressed their unwillingness to participate in this process, although they insist on maintaining the order of water distribution and consumption established in the Soviet period. The transition to mutual trade at world prices and the constant increase in energy prices, as well as various barriers to civilized commerce, have further worsened the situation in Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, in 1993, Bishkek has decided to change the operation of the Toktogul cascade of reservoirs with their reorientation to generating electricity to cover its own needs. As a result, in winter, when the demand for energy is particularly high, there is an intensive discharge of water, flooding and waterlogging of land, and in the summer months, when water is vital for the agricultural sector, there is a process of its accumulation and there is a widespread shortage of water in the lower reaches.

On March 17, 1998, an intergovernmental agreement was signed between the three mentioned States. Three months later, Tajikistan joined the document. This agreement is still valid today.

The most important condition for the effectiveness of this scheme is strict compliance by all its participants with their obligations over time. Any, even the smallest violation of these obligations led to the emergence of tension and demarches of one or the other side, which in practice happened more than once. The lack of objective mechanisms for monitoring the implementation of obligations created additional difficulties. In the practical implementation of these agreements,-

page 142
There have been many cases that stem from the contradictions between the interests of energy and irrigation.

As for another transboundary river basin, the Amu Darya, according to the Research Center of the Interstate Water Coordination Commission of Central Asia (SIC ICWC CA), out of its total annual flow of 79.280 cubic km of water: about 50 cubic km (63%) is formed on the territory of Tajikistan, 21.6 cubic km (27%) - Afghanistan and Iran, 4.7 cubic km (6%) -Uzbekistan and 1.5 (1.9%) falls on the territory of Turkmenistan [Diagnostic report..., 2001, p. 9].

In order to distribute the water resources of the Amu Darya River among the four republics of the region - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan - a General Scheme for the Development of water Resources in the Amu Darya River basin was developed during the Soviet period. The distribution was approved by the decision of the Scientific and Technical Council of the Ministry of Land Reclamation and Water Management of the USSR No. 556 in 1987 [Diagnostic report..., 2001, p. 23]. In accordance with this document, the water of this pool was distributed according to the following scheme:: Kyrgyzstan - 0.6%, Tajikistan-15.4, Turkmenistan -35.8 and Uzbekistan-48.2%. At present, the quota procedure for water distribution in the lower reaches between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan is maintained. In years of low water and drought, when the water level in the river fell, there were difficulties in dividing water in the upper and lower reaches, even within the same country.

There is also another important point to consider here, which may become a serious problem in the future. We are talking about increasing Afghanistan's water needs in the future. The country's long-standing civil war has caused economic stagnation. However, as the situation stabilizes and the country's economic development becomes necessary, the situation may lead to the emergence of another major water consumer in the region. Today, Afghanistan's needs are covered by its own water resources, which exceed 2 cubic kilometers per year, but in the foreseeable future this will not be enough and the issue will have to be resolved. This perspective is fraught with many difficulties and contradictions.

Taking into account all the above, the conclusion suggests itself: the water-energy model created in the Soviet era proved to be beneficial for countries located in plains rich in hydrocarbon reserves (oil, coal, gas) and large areas of fertile irrigated land. However, the republics with high-mountain terrain, due to the insufficient degree of agricultural development and the weakness of the corresponding infrastructure to meet their own food needs, were dependent on the economic policy of the center. This led to the fact that they inevitably found themselves in the most difficult economic situation after independence and faced the need to bear large costs for the maintenance and operation of water management facilities of regional significance, working, as in the Soviet period, for the needs of their neighbors. The system of distribution and management of water resources created in the Soviet Union turned out to be discriminatory under the new conditions.

For Tajikistan, in particular, which was still one of the poorest republics in the USSR, a critical situation has developed. Seasonal regulation of water supplied for irrigation of the lands of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the Syrdarya River basin is carried out by the Kairakkum reservoir located in the north of the country, and compensation under the above scheme was allocated to Kyrgyzstan. Meanwhile, the lack of electricity in winter forced the authorities to buy electricity and fuel from their neighbors at steadily rising world prices and impose a strict limit on its consumption within the country. The surplus of electricity generated in the summer was not in demand in the region, and none of the Central Asian countries agreed to accept it from Russia.

page 143
It is a condition of return in winter, and there are no opportunities to export energy outside the region due to the isolation of power grids. Therefore, today the volume of flows between the states of the region is extremely low and is characterized by figures of the order of 200-250 million kWh.

The already permanent energy deficit in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan during the winter period indicates the absolute inefficiency of the old scheme based on barter. Obviously, it is necessary to develop new approaches and methodologies for solving water and energy issues, which should be facilitated by the creation of a still planned regional water and energy consortium.

Thus, it becomes clear that the immediate use of methods and tools of preventive diplomacy leading to the elimination of latent conflict situations in the water and energy sector, which is most important for the economies of the region, is imperative. Not acute crises in inter-state relations, not the clarification of relations between countries by uncivilized methods, but reasonable, balanced decisions that take into account the interests of all - this is where the common interests of the countries of the region lie today.

list of literature

Boutros-Ghali B. An Agenda for Peace. 2nd ed. New York, 1995.

Diagnostic report for the preparation of a regional strategy for the rational and efficient use of water resources in Central Asia. Dushanbe, 2001.

Mamatkanov D. M. Current state and problems of water resources management in Central Asia // Central Asian water resources and their rational use. Dushanbe, 2001.

Petrov G. N., Nazriev M. N. Water and energy complex of the Aral Sea basin. Current state, problems and prospects of development // Central Asian water resources and their rational use. Dushanbe, 2001.

Verhoog Frits. Water Resources Problems in Central Asia and the Aral Sea Basin Vision / / Water resources of Central Asia and their rational use. Dushanbe, 2001.

Permanent link to this publication: