Moscow: Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2001, 201 p.

China's rapid economic growth and increasing aggregate power in recent decades has attracted close attention around the world, and in some countries (the United States, some of China's neighbors) even causes some concern. It is precisely the prospects for the development of the PRC in the near future and plans for the further rise of its national economy that are considered in the new book by I. N. Naumov, author of monographs (Food problem in China, Moscow, 1973; Problems of forming and raising the standard of living of the PRC population, Moscow, 1993) and numerous articles on the economy of modern China.

To study these problems, the author drew on a wide range of official sources, scientific developments of Chinese scientists, and various statistical data. He carefully analyzed such fundamental documents as "Theoretical justification and choice of policies for China's economic development in 1991-2010", "The Ninth Five-Year Plan (1996-2000) for China's Economic and Social Development and the Long-term program until 2010", "The White Paper on Population and Environmental Development in the XXI Century" ("Agenda of the World Economic Forum"). for China in the twenty-first century"), Jiang Zemin's report at the 15th CPC Congress "Holding high the great banner of Deng Xiaoping's theory, comprehensively promoting the cause of building socialism with Chinese characteristics in the twenty-first century". I. N. Naumov paid great attention to the capital works and prognostic studies of leading Chinese specialists. Among them: "China in 2020 "(Beijing, 1999, 639 p.), "China is taking a firm step in 2020" (Beijing, 1997, 440 p.), "Chinese economy on the way to the XXI century" (Beijing, 1997, 596 p.; edited by the Director of the Institute of Technical Economics. and polit, research. AON of China Li Jinwen), " Scientific and technological progress and modernization of China "(Beijing, 1998, 460 p.)," Weak points in the economy "(Beijing, 2000, 320 p.)," Main trends in the development of the Chinese economy in the XXI century " (Shenyang, 1998, 460 p.).

The development of long-term plans and predictive research in China is carried out by numerous research institutes, laboratories, institutions, and many thousands of scientists in Beijing and in the periphery. The Academy of Social Sciences and its provincial branches are the main think tank that works out various options for plans and long-term programs. The results of their work are regularly published and widely discussed in the central and provincial press, which makes it possible to create a relatively complete picture of the expected development of the PRC in the foreseeable future.

The author also used extensive statistical data from various yearbooks and periodicals. Along with the data of official reference books and calculations of Chinese experts, I. N. Naumov also provides his own calculations concerning the prospects for the development of the national economy of the People's Republic of China for the next 20 years.

The author carefully analyzes the reform activities of the Beijing leadership, which in the process of modernizing its state faced a complex of the most difficult problems. Having set themselves the task of bringing GDP ^per capita production to the level of the world's middle-developed countries by the middle of the twenty-first century and becoming one of the top countries in terms of total GDP production1, China's leaders realized that they would have to carry out a number of fundamental structural changes. The most important principles of the reform were recognized as: continuous development of productive forces (later it was clarified - advanced productive forces), increasing the total economic activity of the population.-

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cabbage soup, the rise of national welfare. The key points were the idea that in the course of reforms it is necessary to transform the economic mechanism, and not the existing socio-economic system, that reforms should not cause shocks in society, disrupt social, political and psychological stability.

Having come to the conclusion that the concept of creating a "unified socialist national property" does not meet the existing level of productive forces, the Chinese leadership began to boldly implement the idea of a multi-structured economy. However, the process of formation of various ways of life took place not at the expense of the national and collective sectors, but with the support of the state on its own basis. The public sector was reformed and expanded. Even in the last years of the twentieth century, when non-state structures were rapidly developing and at the same time the number of state-owned enterprises was decreasing (due to their unprofitability), ² the value of state property continued to increase. If in 1996 it was estimated at 6.6 trillion. In 1999, it increased to 9.1 trillion yuan. yuan (p. 153).

It is impossible not to agree with I. N. Naumov that by creating a "system of socialist market economy", the Chinese leadership assigns a huge role to the state in this matter. The central government still has such powerful levers of influence on economic processes as a developed public sector, planning, banking, monetary and fiscal systems, wholesale trade, pricing, and somewhat liberalized foreign economic and scientific and technical relations, which will certainly be supported by the energetic support of party bodies (p.191).

In an effort to put an end to subsistence and semi-natural farming, the Chinese leadership vigorously expanded the sphere of commodity-money relations. However, this process (especially the issue of paper money) was under strict state control. Although the total money supply in China increased 52.4 times in 17 years (1979-1995) (p.31), the average annual price increase over 20 years of reforms was 6.75% (p. 36).

It is important to note that in the course of rapid economic development over the past two decades, the Chinese economy has repeatedly faced serious financial complications, excessive inflation, and monetary crises. But as a result of the central authorities ' firm and purposeful policy, the population did not suffer significant material losses. Thus, the incomes of peasants increased 11.8 times in 17 years, and the national wage fund-14.2 times (p. 34). The Chinese Government has managed to maintain the confidence of its people and foreign investors in the Chinese currency and in the banking system. Thanks to this, Chinese bank savings are steadily growing and actively participate in the recovery of the national economy. The total amount of household deposits increased 283 times in 1979-1999 and amounted to approximately 72.8% of GDP (p. 35). The amount of credit resources on bank accounts in 1997 was 7491.4 billion rubles. This year's gross domestic product (US $ 7477.2 billion) exceeded that of the previous year. RMB). In 1999, the total amount of credit resources ($12,323 billion). RMB) It was already one and a half times more than GDP ($8191.1 billion). RMB). There is probably a typo in the book - "by 15%" (p. 126).

Thus, in the process of transition to a market economy, the material situation of almost the entire working population of the country has improved to varying degrees. The authorities pay special attention to the material support of scientists and scientists. In terms of remuneration, employees of research institutes and scientific and technical services (annual salary for 1997 7794 yuan = 942 dollars) were in second place after power engineers (9064 yuan = 1101.5 dollars), ahead of employees of banks, insurance and real estate (p. 118).

By making the decision to integrate China into the world economy (openness to the outside world), the Chinese leadership has built its foreign economic policy in such a way that it not only did not allow the destruction of its domestic market, but, on the contrary, used imports to reconstruct its industry and its exports. Already in 1998, China, along with Hong Kong, ranked fourth in the world in terms of exports (p. 31).

After outlining the most important results of the reform of the PRC over the past years (especially over the past 10 years), I. N. Naumov carefully analyzed the main tasks outlined for the first two decades of the XXI century, and ways to solve them. It carefully examines the proposed development strategy and forecast of macrostructural transformations in the country's economy. The author emphasizes one of the cardinal conclusions of the Chinese leadership: the goals set can be achieved only by switching to resource-saving, science-and capital-intensive production. In fact, this means the need for a radical reconstruction of the entire world.-

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and the transition to a new stage of development of the productive forces and society as a whole. China will have to make a strategic turn in the development of the national economy, which consists in changing the way of economic growth, in improving the quality and efficiency of the entire national economy.

It is especially necessary, although this is the greatest difficulty, to carry out a deep scientific and technical revolution in agriculture (I sphere), since the country clearly understands that "without the modernization of the countryside, there can be no modernization of China" (p. 66). This transformation is closely linked to the macrostructural restructuring of the entire national economy, with a change in the ratio between industries (spheres) in GDP production and the distribution of labor. Agriculture is expected to employ less than 30% of all employees in 2020 (compared to 60% in 1990 and 49.9% in 1997) ^.3 The movement of rural populations to cities is accelerating. As of the end of 2001, 67.9 million peasants became urban dwellers in the 1990s. Chinese experts predict that 176 million rural residents will move to cities and urban - type settlements in the first decade of the twenty-first century, and 152 million more in the second decade. ⁴

At the same time, the share of people employed in the entire infrastructure sector (sector III) will increase from 18.5% to almost 43%. The author rightly believes that such an expansion of this sphere is fraught with serious dangers, since under certain conditions it can turn into a sump of hidden unemployment, help to wind up non-existent GDP growth, and raise "soap foam instead of real growth". China faced this problem already at the end of the 20th century (p. 77).

However, we are interested in the answer to the following question: was the reduction in the share of people employed in agriculture already accompanied by the expansion of land plots? The author does not mention this, and yet without a significant increase in the size of land plots at the disposal of peasant households, a scientific and technical revolution in the countryside is practically impossible. The outflow of labor from rural areas, mainly young people, who are largely insufficiently educated and trained for skilled labor, is constantly turning into a painful problem for the leadership of the PRC. Reducing the share of people employed in the agricultural sector would be important if it led to a new redistribution of cultivated land. This task is facing the country, but its solution has not yet been found. In addition, it seems that the peasants are not yet ready for such a redistribution.

A large part of the monograph is devoted to the study of the strategy and forecasts of material production growth. Here, as usual, the agricultural sector is put in the first place, more precisely, the production of food products, primarily grain. Sufficient provision of people with food determines the stability of society and the successful development of the entire national economy. The Chinese leadership understands that if it fails to properly solve the food problem, all plans to turn China into a modern powerful state will collapse. At the same time, it goes without saying that the main condition for achieving these goals is self-sufficiency in food. China cannot focus on large - scale food imports; only its own production can provide it with a decent path to the future.

Meanwhile, the forecast period (2001-2020) will be accompanied by a rapid increase in the need for basic necessities of life, including food. During this period, the population will increase by about 200 million people and at the same time the urban population will increase sharply, as a rule, making higher demands on their diet than rural residents. However, foreign observers have already noticed that in some provinces (Sichuan, etc.), farmers have significantly increased their intake of meat and other animal products. This means that the demand for additional grain will increase, as when switching from a traditional to a new food system, grain consumption will increase by one and a half to two times.

The author provides calculations of China's grain needs in the coming years, based on two assumptions: 400 kg per capita and 550. The difference between the final figures, he calls the deficit, which in 2005 will exceed 200 million tons (40% of the gross harvest of 1999), and by 2020 will amount to 254 million tons. Here an arithmetic error is made, in fact-222 million tons. Criticizing Chinese forecasters, based on the calculation of 400 kg of grain per year per person, I. N. Naumov believes that they ignore the change in the type of food and thereby underestimate the real needs of the country in grain. According to him, in some cities already at the end of the XX century.-

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villages accounted for (including forage) 530-550 kg of grain (p. 84). It seems to me that the author is getting too far ahead of himself. In each country there is a certain segment of the population, which in terms of its consumption is sharply ahead of the average level. After the beginning of radical reforms, such a stratum appeared in the PRC, both among the urban and rural population, but it is still not too large. Of course, in the last decade, the diet of the masses in China has improved: with the exception of a few tens of millions of people (less than 5% of the population), people have stopped going hungry, and their food has become more diverse. However, it is clearly premature to seriously talk about changing the type of food on a national scale.

As practice has shown, the per capita production of 1 kg of grain per day (365 kg per year) allows China to move forward confidently and steadily. Therefore, 400 kg of grain per year per person is quite a real amount, which not only meets the needs of the PRC, but also allows it to develop at a rapid pace. At the same time, some shortage of grain is also possible. So, in 2010, China's needs will be estimated at 552 million tons, and in 2020-at 592 million tons. The gross grain harvest may be less, but the deficit in this case is possible in 30-50 million tons and it is unlikely that it will significantly affect the implementation of the planned programs.

The author dwells in detail on the financial support of the economic and social development of the PRC during the period under review. As in previous years, China will continue to be the country with the highest savings rate. But the need for financial resources is enormous, and Chinese economists argue that the PRC continues to remain "at the stage of acute monetary hunger." Naturally, China is extremely interested in attracting foreign investment and we can assume that their inflow will increase in the XXI century. In any case, the authorities are doing everything possible for this.

It is obvious that the main condition for achieving these goals is a radical reconstruction of the PRC economy, mastering the latest achievements of modern science, technology and technology to transform the traditionally inertial type of production. And here we need both financial resources and involvement in scientific and technological progress. China understands this and is taking appropriate measures. There are still a lot of illiterates in the country, but at the end of the 20th century, 98% of children were enrolled in school, more than 3 million students were enrolled in institutes and universities, and about 176.5 thousand young scientists were engaged in scientific research at the graduate school. The general education level of the population of the PRC is increasing every decade (I note, however, that a large proportion of the unemployed in the country is educated youth), thanks to which the country is successfully mastering the production of popular modern goods, including the latest equipment. The quality of these products is quite high, and they are the main part of Chinese exports.

The author is only partly right when he repeats, following the Chinese, that the contribution of science and technology to economic growth is low and that "scientific and technological progress in the PRC relies mainly on imported equipment and imported theories" (p.119). Now this is true, but Japan and the so-called new industrial countries went the same way in their time. From my point of view, it is much more important that 20 years ago the Chinese openly admitted that they were not able to use the equipment and technology of advanced developed countries. Now they are relatively easy to cope with this task and master the latest and most complex production processes (nuclear power, genetic engineering, cloning, space exploration, etc.). It is possible that in the next 20 years, the PRC will not only master the lion's share of the latest world achievements, but also have its say in the development of scientific and technological development. technical progress. China still has some unique developments and technologies, which, however, is in no hurry to share with other countries.

It should be noted that almost all the provisions and conclusions of I. N. Naumov are justified and do not cause doubts. All the more annoying are the minor inaccuracies found in the book. Thus, speaking about the incomplete implementation of many long-term plans and the wave-like development of the Chinese economy, the author mentions both objective and subjective reasons. In his opinion, "the main one is the gigantic population growth in an overpopulated country" (p. 8). I cannot agree with this statement. Of course, China's overpopulation and rapid population growth must be taken into account. However, this did not determine the failures in the economic policy of the People's Republic of China, as well as non-objective difficulties, including natural disasters. The main reason for failures, and sometimes a catastrophic drop in production, was voluntarism, the gap between the planned plans and reality. Big Jump crash, execution failures

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the third and fourth five-year plans ("cultural revolution"), " saw " ⁵ in the production of agricultural products (1984-1990) were mainly determined by the subjective miscalculations of Chinese leaders. As soon as the authorities corrected the mistakes made, the national economy literally in a matter of years got on the path of normal development and showed a tendency to a significant increase, despite the continuing overpopulation and continuous population growth.

Considering the state of industrial sectors, the author does not always take into account the international situation and its impact on China. In particular, when talking about the underutilization of production capacity in China, he forgets about the severe impact of the Asian financial crisis on the entire regional and global economy, which led to a significant drop in demand. Therefore, the created capacities for the production of color televisions, household refrigerators and other products were occupied by about half (p. 62). But as soon as the crisis passed, the output of the same color TVs more than doubled.

However, these and some other flaws do not in any way reduce the value of the reviewed book. After analyzing the whole complex of problems associated with China's economic development in the coming decades, the author concludes that the PRC has a chance to successfully implement the developed program of economic recovery. But to do this, you must meet a number of essential conditions. One and the most significant of them is the transition to intensive forms of production, which can become a way of survival of Chinese society in the XXI century.

In conclusion, we can say that the research of I. N. Naumov is quite convincing. A great advantage of the work is its laconism, which sometimes turns into a thesis statement; there is nothing superfluous or optional in it. The book will be of interest not only to specialists, but also to the general public, including politicians, scientists and ordinary citizens who are interested in the processes taking place in the world around us.

notes

¹ In 2000, China ranked third in the world in terms of this indicator, following the United States and Japan.

² Among the reasons for the unprofitability of state-owned enterprises, we should note a large surplus of labor and a significant social "burden" - (mandatory social insurance and consumer services standards), which are absent in non-state sectors.

³ According to other data, in 1999 50.1% of all employees were employed in agriculture, 23% in industry and construction, and 26.9% in infrastructure.

⁴ Chinese news. 15.11.2001. N 28.

⁵ During 1984-1990. the yields of the main food crops in China fluctuated around the same level, graphically resembling the drawing of a saw.

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