The second half of 2010 in the Republic of Iraq was marked by the withdrawal of US Army combat units from Iraq and the government crisis in that country. Now it is unlikely that anyone will undertake to offer a long-term forecast regarding its internal political development. The prospects of Russian oil companies ' operations depend not only on the decisions of the authorities, who do not have full control over the situation, which remains unstable and explosive. A significant role in this is played by socio-political factors, the foreign policy situation and, in general, whether Iraq will remain as a state within its current borders on the political map of the world.

Key words: Iraq, Kurdistan, oil, draft law on hydrocarbons, N. al-Maliki.

RUSSIAN OIL COMPANIES IN IRAQ

Two Russian companies are engaged in providing services for the development of Iraqi oil fields. LUKOIL Overseas has secured the right to develop the second stage of the West Qurna 1 field, while GAZPROM NEFT has obtained the right to develop the Badra 2 site. In an interview with Interfax on January 28, 2010, Boris Zilbermints, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board and Deputy General Director for Exploration and Production of GAZPROM NEFT, said: "GAZPROM NEFT is the operator of the consortium in the Badra field development project in Iraq (the Russian company owns 30%). The remaining members of the consortium are Korea's Kogas (22.5%), Malaysia's Petronas (15%) and Turkey's TRAO Oil Corporation (7.5%), while the Iraqi government owns 25%. In order to start work this year, the partners will jointly invest more than $ 200 million in the project. including payment of the subscription bonus. The Iraqi side does not make the payment, so GAZPROM NEFT will pay 40% of the amount. In total, over 20 years of operation at the field, the consortium will invest about $ 2 billion in Badra. " [http://www.gazprom-neft...].

In both projects, the share of the Iraqi government represented by state-owned companies is 25%. The contracts are valid for 20 years with the possibility of extending for 5 years.

For West Qurna, the steering committee approved the drilling program for 2010-2011. Three appraisal wells and one exploration well were expected to be drilled. According to the press service of LUKOIL, on September 17, 2010, work began on the disposal of mines and unexploded ordnance in the territory designated by the Company.-

1 January 31, 2010 LUKOIL (20% owned by ConocoPhillips of the United States) and the Government of Iraq have signed a contract for the development and production of oil at the West Qurna field. The parties to the contract are the Iraqi state oil company South Oil Company and a consortium of contractors consisting of the Iraqi state oil company North Oil Company (25%), LUKOIL (56.25%) and Norwegian Statoil ASA (18.75%). The contract is valid for 20 years with the possibility of extension for 5 years. Drilling at West Qurna-2 will start in 2011 and production will start in late 2012. The target production level of 90 million tons of oil per year is planned to be reached in 2017. The field development plan provides for additional seismic surveys and drilling of more than five hundred wells. LUKOIL's investments, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to about $ 300 million in 2010, and in the next 4-5 years will amount to $ 4.5 billion.

2 The Badra field is located in the Wasit province of eastern Iraq and borders Iran's Azar field, which GAZPROM NEFT plans to develop jointly with the Iranian company NIOC.

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It is intended for placement of production and infrastructure facilities in the field. It was planned to complete them by the beginning of 2011. [www.polit.ru]. According to the head of LUKOIL Vagit Alekperov, the total investment in the development of the West Qurna-2 oil field will exceed $ 30 billion, and the production volume will be 95 million tons per year. On August 31, 2010, LUKOIL Vice President L. A. Fedun announced that production is expected only by the end of 2012, and the target level of more than 90 million tons of oil per year is expected to be reached in 2017. From the received volume of raw materials, the company expects to receive 8-10 million tons of oil per year as part of compensation for the costs of the field development project. Additional seismic surveys and drilling of more than 500 wells are planned. The head of the company, V. Y. Alekperov, assured the Iraqi Oil Minister, H. al-Shahristani, that all the terms of the contract will be fulfilled by the Russian side. At the same time, Alekperov reminded that LUKOIL has been working on the implementation of this project for 10 years. This is worth paying special attention to, because the Russian company is extremely necessary to strictly comply with the terms of the agreement for the reason that one of the main formal reasons for the cancellation of the oil contract in 2002 was the low activity of domestic players [http://www.islamnews...].

GAZPROM NEFT is carrying out related operations at the Badra 3 field. According to preliminary estimates, the geological reserves of the site amount to more than 2 billion cubic meters. barrels of oil. The company and its partners plan, as mentioned above, to jointly invest more than $ 200 million in the project in the near future, including the payment of a subscription bonus. Since the Iraqi side does not make the payment, the Russian company must pay 40% of the amount. In general, following the results of the contract, the consortium will invest about 2 billion rubles in Badra. dol. [http://www.k2kapital...]. It is not excluded that the partners ' shares may change during the implementation of the transaction, but for the time being, taking into account the volume of necessary investments of the consortium in Badra and GAZPROM NEFT's capital investment plans, the company does not intend to increase or decrease its share in the Iraqi project.

According to the contractual agreements, the Iraqi side undertakes to pay Gazprom's subsidiary $ 5.5 for each barrel of oil produced (or the corresponding amount of "black gold") only after reaching the initial production level of 15 thousand tons. barrels per day. It is planned to reach this indicator in late 2012-early 2013.

According to management estimates, the consortium is able to reach the "shelf" 4 production of 170 thousand barrels per day for 6-7 years. A.V. Dyukov, Chairman of the GAZPROM NEFT Management Committee, is convinced of the indisputable feasibility of fully implementing the Badra development plan, rightfully calling this project one of the key stages in the company's development in international markets [Ibid.].

These are not empty words. With the start of operations in Iraq, GAZPROM NEFT is taking another important step in fulfilling its long-term plan to increase production to 100 million tons of oil equivalent by 2020. Domestic oil workers prove their serious intentions by active actions.

For example, a GAZPROM NEFT delegation took part in the first meeting of the Joint Management Committee (JCC), the controlling body of the project for the development of the Iraqi oil field. The event was held on May 25-26, 2010 in the city of Kirkuk in northern Iraq. Then the report of GAZPROM NEFT BADRA B. V. was presented. 5 According to the report, in the four months that have passed since the entry into force of the contract for the development of the field, the main organizational issues were resolved.-

3 The contract was signed on January 28, 2010 in Baghdad by GAZPROM NEFT Deputy General Director for Exploration and Production B. Zilbermints with the Government of Iraq.

4 Professional term.

5 of the GAZPROM NEFT Subsidiary.

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operational and legal issues, preliminary agreements were reached on the terms and stages of development of the field. They also reviewed the status of preparing an Agreement on joint activities of project participants, agreed on the terms of operation of the QMS and conducting the necessary tenders. The participants discussed the construction of an oil pipeline and associated gas utilization facilities, as well as the need to clear the field's territory. To carry out this operation, the Ministry of Ecology of Iraq will engage a specialized contractor with experience in such work.

In both cases, we are not yet talking about controlling the entire production chain "raw materials-finished product", but only about providing services, i.e. Russian companies will only produce oil for a fixed fee, and Iraqis will manage it. However, it is worth taking the risk, because working in Iraq is an opportunity to get not only direct income, but also geophysical information about the region, which in the future will help in making other, larger investment decisions.

It is noteworthy that in the sphere of economic cooperation with Baghdad, a very favorable situation may arise for our country: the industrial needs of Iraq generally correspond to the capabilities of Russian manufacturers. It would be quite reasonable for Russian companies to attract not only specialists from Russia, but also Iraqi workers. This will help to obtain certain guarantees from the government for the preservation of this asset, and also create favorable conditions for working with the support of the local population. This is especially true now, given the acute political differences that have not been overcome by the end of the long government crisis that hindered the formation of a legitimate government after the March 2010 parliamentary elections.

PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE OIL INDUSTRY

Many researchers and experts agree that the oil industry in Iraq has considerable prospects. As the author writes under the pseudonym Oleg Khrabry: "The country is firmly on the oil needle. Hydrocarbon exports account for 95% of central budget revenues" (Oleg Khrabry, 2009).

Most of Iraq's oil is currently produced in the south of the country in the Basra province area (total reserves - about 65 billion tons). barrels). Here, the largest deposits include South and North Rumaila, including West Qurna (total recoverable reserves - 20 billion cubic meters). barrels, including $ 8.7 billion. West Qurna), Mazhnun (12.6 billion barrels). barrels), Zubayr ($6 billion). barrels). Natural gas reserves in these areas, with the exception of Mazhnun, amount to 480 billion cubic meters. m and 140 billion cubic meters. m respectively.

According to statistics, the Kirkuk and Rumaila sections account for up to 90% of the total oil production in the country, and the development potential is huge. Iraq has 10.8% of the world's proven oil reserves at minimal production costs, while only a small part of the country's fields are in operation.

Nevertheless, even with the current volume of oil production, revenues from the export of this raw material amounted to $ 30 billion in 2009. (I must say that the indicator could have been much higher if not for the significant decline in oil consumption by foreign importers due to the global financial and economic crisis and the subsequent fall in the cost of the raw material itself).

In 2010, the situation returned to normal, and in March, fuel supplies brought the Iraqi budget $ 4.351 billion, despite its quantitative decrease by 11% - to 1.84 million barrels per day. However, the decline in export volumes was then offset by an increase in oil prices on world markets, and in April the budget received 4.2 billion rubles, and in May - 4.325 billion rubles. Subsequent figures were kept at the same level.

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In total, the volume of deliveries of Iraqi raw materials abroad in recent months has ranged from 53 to 60 million barrels at an average price of $ 73.8 per barrel.

Speaking about the current oil industry in Iraq, it would not hurt to recall that in the time of S. Hussein, oil was indeed one of the cementing factors of society: the funds from its sale were used to build economic infrastructure, modernize it, and buy weapons for the army. Today, "black gold" has ceased to be a unifying factor, and its main purpose is to serve the interests of individual tribes and ethnic groups: Kurds in the north, Shiites in the south of the country. Sunnis living mainly in the central part of the country are left out of business due to the lack of proven hydrocarbon reserves on their territory and a developed infrastructure for field exploration and subsequent extraction of resources.

IRAQ'S HYDROCARBON BILL

To date, there is no single law in the legislation of Iraq that would regulate in detail the legal relations related to mineral resources and their use. In this regard, the country has begun work on preparing the text of the relevant draft law. In the winter of 2007, the Federal Oil and Energy Committee of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Iraq completed work on a draft law on hydrocarbons, which was soon submitted to Parliament for consideration. However, due to sharp disagreements between representatives of various ethnic and religious groups living in Iraq, the law has not yet been adopted. Nevertheless, the necessity and significance of the adoption of such a law for modern Iraq draws us to a detailed analysis of some of its important provisions.

Speaking about the structure of the draft law, it should be noted that it consists of a preamble, 8 sections, which include 43 articles, and appendices. Its provisions are applicable to all operations and actions carried out in relation to subsurface resources throughout the state, with the exception of operations for the distillation, use for industrial purposes, storage and distribution of oil resources. The purpose of this draft law, according to the drafters, is to establish effective cooperation between the ministries of Iraq, as well as to assist in discussing issues between the federal government and the authorities of producing districts and provinces. Duplicating one of the provisions of the new Constitution of Iraq, Article 1 of the draft law establishes the ownership of the Iraqi people's energy resources.

In subsequent articles of the document, the competence of state authorities in regulating relations in this area is described in detail. Thus, Article 5 states that the creation of legislation on hydrocarbons is the responsibility of the Council of Representatives6, which must approve all international agreements in the oil and gas sector concluded by Iraq with other States. The Council of Ministers will make recommendations on the draft laws proposed by the Council of Representatives on the development of the country's oil and gas resources. This is the competent state authority, which, according to the text of the draft law under analysis, should determine the oil and gas policy of Iraq and monitor its implementation. Moreover, the Council of Ministers should be responsible for all operations carried out in the oil and gas industry, including making proposals to the country's oil legislation. To assist the Council of Ministers in the development of oil policy and related planning, it is proposed to create a Federal Oil and Gas Council, in which all provinces and regions will be represented.

6 The main legislative body of Iraq. The number of representatives is 325 people. It meets in Baghdad in the Green Zone.

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This public authority should include the following officials::

* Federal Ministers of Oil, Finance, and Planning;

* Directors of the Central Bank of Iraq;

* Ministers of regional governments (from each region);

* a representative from each producing region that is not included in the region;

* Chief executives of oil and gas companies, including the Iraqi National Oil Company and the Oil Marketing Company;

* experts in the oil, financial and economic fields (on the recommendation of the Council of Ministers, consisting of no more than 3 persons, for a period of no more than 5 years).

The Federal Oil and Gas Council has certain powers. Among them:

* development of oil policy directions;

* planning of major oil pipelines on the territory of the state;

* development of an oil field development plan.

It should be particularly noted that the Federal Oil and Gas Council has the right to make significant changes in these areas of its activities, thereby directly influencing the fuel and energy sector policy.

In addition to these functions, the new planning authority may review and amend exploration and production contracts that give the parties the right to conduct oil operations in accordance with the provisions of this draft law. In addition, the Federal Oil and Gas Council may approve or modify the form of an exploration or production contract, taking into account the nature of the field or area under study, in order to maximize benefits for the citizens of Iraq. An important function of this state body is also to establish qualification criteria for oil and gas companies and transfer to them the rights to explore the field and subsequent oil production, provided that these actions do not entail negative consequences for the state.

If necessary, the Federal Oil and Gas Council may request assistance from a Group of Independent consultants consisting of experts in the oil and gas sector, Iraqi citizens and foreigners (the size of this group is determined by the Federal Oil and Gas Council). Specialists should be highly qualified, have an impeccable reputation and, most importantly, have extensive experience in conducting oil exploration and production operations, as well as concluding contracts in these areas. At the request of the Federal Oil and Gas Council, a group of independent consultants provides recommendations on a number of issues related to the exploration, production and development planning of oil fields.

The Federal Oil and Gas Council and the Ministry of Oil of Iraq are responsible for ensuring that resources are extracted in the best possible way for the population of the country and in accordance with legislation, agreements and internationally recognized criteria.

According to the draft law, the Ministry of Oil is a public authority that creates a legislative framework for implementing federal oil policy by introducing initiatives to improve the current legislation regulating legal relations in the region accountable to the Ministry. In addition, the Ministry has the right to sign on behalf of the Republic of Iraq bilateral and multilateral agreements in the oil and gas sector with other States, while respecting the provisions of the Constitution. In accordance with the draft law, it monitors oil operations in order to ensure that the parties that have entered into legal relations on the issue of oil, the proper implementation of laws, ministerial orders and contractual terms. In addition to performing its administrative and monitoring functions, the Ministry carries out-

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controls the costs and expenses incurred by persons entitled to do so. This is done to ensure that costs are properly and fairly reimbursed.

The draft law on hydrocarbons regulates in detail the competence of not only federal government bodies in the oil and gas sector, but also regional authorities. According to the document, regional authorities take the necessary actions to prepare and submit proposals on the activities of the federal authorities in order to include their region in the federal oil operations planning program. Regional authorities are also responsible for licensing activities related to oil exploration and production at open but undeveloped fields in accordance with orders and statements issued by the Federal Oil and Gas Council in cooperation with the world's leading oil companies. Representatives of regional government bodies may participate in discussions held by the Federal Oil and Gas Council and cooperate with the Ministry of Oil on monitoring and supervising compliance with laws, regulations, guidelines, and individual contractual provisions related to oil exploration and production.

In addition to the powers of central and regional state authorities in the field of subsoil use, the draft law regulates the distribution of income from the sale of energy resources. The document assumes that financial revenues from oil exports will be allocated to a single account, after which they will be distributed among all 18 provinces of the country, depending on the population in each of them (Article 11).

At the same time, the draft new law provides for the transfer of the largest Iraqi oil fields to "full and exclusive management" of the world's leading oil companies for a period of 32 years (Article 13F).

Due to the fact that the Iraqi National Oil Company (INNC) continues to play a major role in the country's oil and gas industry today, the special Iraqi legislation that has not yet been adopted contains provisions regulating the status and functions of this company. Iraqi law gives it the status of a holding company that is wholly owned by the Government. In administrative and financial matters, INNK is an independent company that is managed on a commercial basis. In addition, INNK:

* Directly participates in oil exploration and production operations in the country on behalf of the Government of Iraq;

* manages existing fields;

* participates in oil production at open but not yet developed fields;

* carries out research and production in new territories.

The operations performed by INNK include the development, production, and storage of oil in accordance with the scope of rights and obligations provided for by law and certain contracts.

In order to ensure and develop cooperation with producing regions and regions of the country, an INNC may establish subsidiaries in the Republic of Iraq, taking into account the geographical location of fields, the volume of oil reserves and production, as well as the analysis of possible price gains.

Together with other affiliated companies, INNK has the right, with the consent of the Council of Ministers, to buy up shares of companies operating in Iraq or abroad. In addition, INNK has the right to act as a commercial partner in international projects related to the purchase and sale of oil and gas. It is also possible, with the consent of the Council of Ministers, for the company to participate in contracts for oil exploration and production outside of Iraq.

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Thus, the drafters of the Iraqi legislation (concerning energy resources) have quite clearly established provisions regarding the legal status, functions performed and tasks of the most important state-owned company, which is by right INNK.

IRAQI KURDISTAN

Iraq's proven oil reserves amount to about $ 115 billion. according to various forecasts, this figure may reach about 200 billion barrels in the future. natural gas - 3.17 trillion cubic meters, but the northern, central and southern parts of the state have unequal reserves.

Deposits of" black gold " in the northern provinces and Kurdistan, amounting to 45 billion rubles. barrels, ranked sixth in the world. So, one of the major centers of oil production is the city of Kirkuk. The eponymous field located there has at least $ 8.5 billion in reserves. barrels of oil and 80 billion cubic meters of gas. The territory of Iraqi Kurdistan also has rich deposits - in the area of Sulaymaniyah, where fuel is extracted by artisanal means, to the northeast of Erbil, as well as in the area of Dohuk and Zakho. Since the end of 2005, the development of the last field has begun, followed by the field near Sulaymaniyah. In addition, over the past two years, foreign companies conducting exploration in the Kurdistan region of Iraq have discovered three new large deposits. In addition, the region contains approximately 2.83 trillion cubic meters of gas, which is about 90% of all Iraqi reserves.

Kurds elected to the Iraqi parliament in the March 2010 elections, like their predecessors, are in favor of the right of regional authorities to deal with the distribution of oil revenues. They insist on the right of the region to sign agreements on the development of deposits without significant interference from the national government. In addition, the Kurdish side actively supports the idea of foreign participation in the development of the oil and gas sector of the economy through the conclusion of bilateral and multilateral production sharing agreements, which grant foreign companies development and production rights for certain periods of time, in accordance with the terms of the agreement.

The Kurds, acting through legal procedures and popular representation, are doing their best to gain control of one of the world's largest oil fields, which is Kirkuk. The Kurdistan Regional Government (PKK) has supported the inclusion in the Iraqi Constitution of a clause (Article 140) requiring a vote on the possibility of formally joining the Kirkuk region to the Kurd-ruled region. As a result, " so far, the winners have been those companies that concluded oil agreements with the Kurdish regional government in 2004-2007."[Oleg Khrabry, 2009].

POLITICAL DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE PARLIAMENTARY CORPS

Sunni parties in Iraq are united and reject the idea of Iraqi Kurdistan's independence in making key decisions regarding natural resources, bypassing the will of the federal government. Moreover, during the discussion of the text of the bill in 2007-2008, Sunni parties took a tough stance on preventing extensive development of Iraq's oil resources by international companies and other third parties. Sunni negotiators, represented by the representative of the largest Sunni Muslim faction in the former Iraqi parliament, the Iraqi Consent Front, A. Abdel-Sitar, objected to certain points in the Iraqi Constitution, since according to them the regions were given the right to participate in oil production and revenue distribution.

As for the Shiite representatives, they generally support the idea of passing legislation on hydrocarbons, as they believe that this opens up prospects

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to revitalize a critical sector of the Iraqi economy and increase government revenue. However, it seems that such statements for the most part do not reflect the true situation that has developed in the Shiite camp. Ministries headed by leaders of Shiite parties (usually affiliated with the Iraqi National Alliance) have faced criticism over corruption in the oil sector and poor management of fuel export revenues.

The reasons for this could be differences within the alliance on the principles of federalism, in particular, members of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution party would prefer to create a large federal region that unites the majority of Shiite provinces in the south of the country. Representatives of the moderate Al-Da'awa association opposed this, supporting the idea of centralizing power in the federal decision-making bodies. This position probably stemmed from the desire to ensure the dominance of Shiites in the national authorities.

The Iraqi National Congress takes a clearly pro-Western position, which advocates the idea of full integration of the ruling Shiite majority into the general bloc of various ethnic and religious Iraqi political forces currently operating, without any single group dominating it. To a greater or lesser extent, all parties that make up the Iraqi National Alliance support the idea of creating a strong Iraqi National Oil Company in order to limit the influence of potential and actual separatists.

Hopes for unhindered adoption of the bill were destroyed not only by the above-mentioned differences in the parliamentary corps, but also by the percentage of Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni seats in parliament, which demonstrates the complexity of the alignment of political forces in the country.

Following the March 2010 elections, a new Iraqi Parliament was formed, including 325 deputies. The seats were distributed as follows. The liberal-patriotic Al-Iraqiya bloc led by the Shiite A. Alawi won 91 seats, the State of Law coalition led by the current head of government N. al-Maliki - 89, the Shiite religious and political bloc Iraqi National Alliance-70, the KDP and PUK coalition - 43, the Kurdish opposition party Goran-8, interfaith secular association Iraqi Accord - 6, Sunni bloc Iraqi Unity - 4, Islamic Union of Kurdistan - 4 and Islamic Group of Kurdistan - 2 seats. In accordance with the current legislation, 8 mandates were awarded to representatives of religious and national minorities.

Despite the fact that the number and personal composition (only 60 deputies of the previous convocation retained their positions in the current parliament) The Council of Representatives has changed significantly, leaving Shiites and Kurds at the helm, who have further strengthened their positions. Although Sunnis rely on the Al-Iraqiya bloc, which stands above religious differences (the victory of which was largely ensured by the Sunni provinces), but, as the current situation shows, its real political weight is relatively small.

Taking into account the current composition of the federal legislative body and the procedure for discussing future draft laws by its members, the following prospects for the adoption of the draft law are considered. According to article 57 of the Iraqi Constitution, the quorum for holding sessions of the Council of Representatives is an absolute majority of its members. Decisions are made by a simple majority of votes, unless otherwise specified. The current Constitution does not regulate the procedure for passing draft laws; it is determined by other special legislation. Thus, the draft law on hydrocarbons, due to its special significance, can only be adopted by a qualified majority of at least 2/3 of the votes of deputies participating in the meeting (quorum). In the current situation, it is extremely difficult to achieve such a situation.

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The quorum is achieved if there are at least 163 participants, hence the qualified majority of votes - 108. The secular Al-Iraqiya bloc, despite the victory, is likely to be deprived of the opportunity to take advantage of its fruits, since it is unlikely that it will be able to get the missing 17 votes. A. Alawi is unlikely to be able to reach an agreement with the Kurdish associations, since he insists on state control over the hydrocarbon deposits in Kurdistan. As a public opponent of Iran, the leader of al-Iraqiya can in no way count on the support of Shiite forces, but can hope for the favor of Sunnis (4 mandates). However, it is not difficult to calculate that even if Iraqi unity meets the liberal-patriotic bloc halfway, the required number of "yes" votes will not be achieved. 8 mandates belonging to Yezidis, Christians and other national and religious minorities will not improve the situation either.

And here is what the prospects of Shiites look like against this background. Since the option with Al-Iraqiya was rejected above, the State of Law (89 mandates) simply needs to find a common language with the coalition of Kurds (57 mandates), consisting of all Kurdish parties represented in parliament, acting as a united front regarding actual and legal independence in controlling the oil fields of Kurdistan and full freedom to export hydrocarbons. This requirement is the main one on the part of the Kurds in terms of supporting a particular coalition. In addition, the coalition of N. al-Maliki will have to agree to a number of other "Kurdish" conditions, for example, to determine the status of Kirkuk as part of Kurdistan based on the results of the census, based on the proportions of the ethnic composition of the population. He is unlikely to be able to decide on such a step, since, among other things, Iraq's neighbors Turkey and Iran are afraid of launching these processes.

The Kurds face two tasks: to get the richest oil field and legally define the administrative borders of Iraqi Kurdistan, which, as the Kurdish side hopes, will become state borders in the near future.

Of course, without the constitutionally proclaimed status of the southern Iraqi region with the corresponding broad powers, their own state authorities and legislation, the Shiites do not intend to indulge the ambitions of the Kurds to become an even more autonomous quasi-state entity with huge oil reserves.

Negotiating with the radical Iraqi National Congress (68 seats) is very problematic for the moderate State of Iraq, especially after the leader of the first union, the opposition leader M. al-Sadr, withdrew six of his supporters from the Iraqi cabinet in 2007, which was the most serious reshuffle in the government of N. al-Maliki.

Thus, it becomes clear that in the short and medium term, it is not possible to expect that the Iraqi political forces will reach a consensus on these key issues, allowing for the adoption of appropriate legislation related to the oil and gas sector. As a result, the high legal risks for domestic players operating in the "mine" Iraqi energy field will not decrease one iota, but on the contrary, together with serious political and economic risks, will continue to call into question the full implementation of oil projects by Russian companies on Iraqi territory.

The situation in Iraq will inevitably become more complicated after the withdrawal of American troops. At the same time, " the Iraqi authorities expect to purchase $ 26 billion worth of American weapons. As reported by RIA Novosti with reference to the local newspaper "Al-Ittihad", this figure was called by the representative of the Ministry of Defense of Iraq Mohammed al-Askari " [www.lenta.ru]. Foreign military personnel " are leaving-some with joy, some with regret. The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq is proceeding smoothly, with German punctuality-

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with a certain amount of information. Hundreds of small and large bases have been closed" (Kozyrev, 2010). "The withdrawal of US army combat units from Iraq may lead to a surge in terrorist activity in that country, as the Americans failed to train capable national armed forces and security agencies," Igor Korotchenko, a member of the public council under the Russian Defense Ministry, told RIA Novosti in August 2010. According to him, in order to prevent this, it is obvious that the United States will rely on attracting private military companies to Iraq, which will be delegated the authority to ensure the security of large oil production facilities, transport infrastructure, and maintaining law and order in major cities, including the capital Baghdad. "In Iraq, we can witness a peculiar phenomenon, when part of the state's functions to ensure national security will actually be transferred to mercenaries, which can lead to massive violations of civil rights and freedoms of the civilian population," Korotchenko said [ibid.] 7.

It is not known how the political career of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will develop. No matter how much Wikileaks 8 blotted out names, no matter how hard it tried to get specific people out of harm's way, al-Maliki took everything personally. His office in an official statement called Wikileaks ' actions interference in the internal affairs of the country and an attempt to "disrupt the formation of the government of Iraq by inciting hatred against political parties and leaders, especially the Prime Minister." Meanwhile, it was the Prime Minister of Iraq, N. al-Maliki, who was subordinate to the security services, including secret Shiite formations - "death squads" that persecuted or destroyed Sunnis. Leaders of the Al-Iraqiya opposition bloc now claim that " in fact, the scale of repression was much broader."

According to the British "The Guardian", the Iranian authorities have taken up the creation of a pro-Iranian anti-Western government in Iraq. During a trip to the Middle East, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on the Syrian authorities and the leadership of Hezbollah in Lebanon to cooperate with Iraqi Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The fact that Ahmadinejad has taken up lobbying for al-Maliki in Islamic states indicates that official Tehran is trying to create a government in Iraq that will abandon the Western model of political structure in the future. According to The Guardian, Iranian politicians have been working in this direction since September 2010. [The Guardian, 17.10.2010].

RISKS FOR RUSSIAN COMPANIES

Apart from the threat of political destabilization and a "war of all against all" in modern Iraq, there is no guarantee that the new Iraqi government will not want to change the terms of some contracts, as it did during the previous regime. Another "underwater reef" is the current high level of corruption in all levels of government, which can devalue promising contractual obligations. This situation is also aggravated by such a factor as the smuggling of oil. In addition, Iraq's underdeveloped infrastructure raises even more doubts about the rosy prospects of Russian business in implementing oil projects on Iraqi territory. First, it is necessary to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure modernization, construction of storage facilities and pipelines, and then

7 On August 5, 2010, in his first interview in more than seven years, Tariq Aziz, a former Deputy Prime Minister of Iraq in the government of Saddam Hussein, said that the current US President Barack Obama should not withdraw troops from the country, otherwise it "will fall to the wolves" [The Guardian, 2010].

8 The publication of classified materials related to the actions of the coalition in Iraq on the Wikileaks website became one of the main political sensations of the past fall.

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already strive for the "shelf" of daily oil production. This will require many drilling rigs, thousands of tons of cement and steel, kilometers of pipes and tens of thousands of professionals. Where does all this come from? It is unlikely to come from Russia, because foreign companies are extremely active in this area: they have already started sending workers and equipment to Iraq or are planning to do so. Among them are such American "heavyweights" as: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, Weatherford International, engineering and construction concerns KBR, Bechtel, Parsons, Fluor, Foster Wheeler.

The situation is complicated by the fact that Russian firms enter the oil sector of Iraq with some shortage of funds. Against this background, it is not worth hoping that foreign companies already operating there dream of cooperation or are ready to make room and accept Russian oil workers.

A similar conclusion can be drawn from the lack of a valid regulatory framework in the country regarding investment in state oil projects. To a greater extent, this applies to the framework law on hydrocarbons that has not yet been adopted in Iraq, the draft of which has been under consideration in Parliament for almost four years.

Perhaps the most controversial are the procedure and conditions for concluding agreements with foreign investors and the procedure for distributing income from energy exports. The lack of compromise on these points can also provoke a domestic conflict, which will not slow down to affect the working conditions of Russian companies.

Iraq will remain a "battleground" between American, European and Chinese energy companies for a long time to come, and it is not difficult to see the political interests of the respective states that overlap with the national interests of this long-suffering country's neighbors. A more in-depth analysis of the risks to Russian business in Iraq can be undertaken by the end of 2011, when it becomes clear what the main trends in the country's domestic political development will be.

list of literature

Kozyrev Yu. Iraqi demobel / / Russian reporter. No. 50 (178). December 23, 2010.

Brave O. The strongest tribe // Expert. N 32 (669). August 24, 2009.

http://www.gazprom-neft.ru/press-center/lib/?id=1563

http://www.islamnews.ru/news-26356.html

http://www.k2kapital.com/news/95890/

http://news.barev.net/policy/26474-Ehkspert-ne-iskljuchaet-vsplesk-terrorizma-v-Irak e-posle-vyvoda-armii-SShA.html

The Guardian. 17.10.2010.

www.polit.ru

www.lenta.ru (09.01.2011).

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