December 5, 2007 The Department of Near and Middle East Countries of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences held an expert meeting on "Main trends and immediate prospects for the development of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and ethnic Kurdistan".

The following issues were discussed:

1. The region's place in international politics and its significance for Russia. Main results of Pakistan's economic development and trends for 2008

2. Main trends in the political development of Pakistan.

3. Possible results of the 2008 parliamentary elections and further developments.

4. Prospects for the fight against Islamic extremists - the local Taliban and Al-Qaeda. The impact of changes in this area on the situation in Afghanistan.

5. Main results of 2007 for Afghanistan and prospects for 2008

6. The Taliban's chances in 2008

7. The impact of the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan on the situation in Central Asia.

8. Iran: results of development in 2007 (economic, domestic and foreign policy) and prospects for 2008

9. Iran-US relations-opportunities for change.

10. Iran's nuclear program. Development of the situation around this program in 2008

11. Main results of socio-economic and political development of Turkey in 2007 Forecasts for 2008

12. Turkey and the Kurdish problem. Causes of escalation and possible ways of conflict evolution in 2008

13. Current economic and political situation in Iraqi Kurdistan. Prospects for change in 2008

14. The Kurdish problem in the region and possible changes in its solution in the near future.

15. The impact of world powers on regional processes. Possible changes in the politics of the West, China, and the Islamic community. Russia's position.

The meeting was attended by 22 employees of the Department, as well as A.V. Yudintsev, Chief Adviser of the Second Asian Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, and E. L. Zhigun, Director of the Middle East Institute.

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Opening the meeting, Head of the BSW Countries Department V. Ya. Belokrenitsky noted that, despite the long history of the department, such an event is being held for the first time. The task of the meeting, organized by the type of situational analysis, is to try to consider the main trends in the development of the political and economic situation within the area, the problems of which are studied in the department. Speaking further with a report on the first issue, V. Ya. Belokrenitsky stressed that the region under study is unique in structure, and the department hardly has analogues in other organizations. At the same time, the fact that it has existed at the Institute of Oriental Studies for more than a quarter of a century indicates that there are objective conditions for this. During this time, the density of political ties in the region has significantly increased both at the state and sub-state levels, which is explained by three factors. The first one is based on such a political and ideological phenomenon as militant Islamism. It now permeates almost the entire region, from Pakistan to Iraq. The second factor is regional nationalism, primarily Kurdish, which binds Turkey to Iraq and Iran. The third factor is the special role of the Islamic Republic of Iran in world and regional politics, which is explained, among other reasons, by the support of radical, especially Shiite, elements in the Islamist movement. Along with the radical ones, there are also moderate pragmatic features in Iran's policy, which are now reflected in relations with its neighbors in the region - Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The latter circumstance allows us to consider the region as to a certain extent unified from the geo-economic point of view, which serves as the fourth factor of its relative (as in the case, in fact, with any other region) isolation.

Touching upon the significance of the region for Russia, V. Ya. Belokrenitsky noted that it is diverse. First, Moscow is interested in the region from the point of view of ensuring security and eliminating threats related to the spread of militant Islamist ideology (jihadism) to the North Caucasus and other Russian regions. Second, because of the special importance of relations with Iran, and third, because of the opportunities for economic and cultural cooperation.

The report of the head of the Sector of Pakistan, S. N. Kamenev, listed the economic achievements that the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has achieved in recent years: growth rates of 7-8% per year, a significant inflow of foreign capital, an increase in foreign trade turnover, and moderate inflation. The prospects for 2008 would have been very favorable if not for the acute domestic political crisis in the country. However, it did not affect the economy for a long time, and we can hope that in 2008 it will have a minimal impact.

During the discussion on the report, it was noted that maintaining high growth rates may be hindered by adverse weather conditions due to the heavy dependence of the Pakistani economy on agriculture. Water shortages are already reported, which will reduce the production of wheat and other spring crops (rabi).

V. N. Moskalenko, in his report on the main trends in the development of Pakistan in 2007, noted the fact that the political crisis is not conditioned by the state of the economy. The crisis was based on political factors, in particular the mistakes of the leadership (President P. Musharraf), who unexpectedly removed Chief Justice I. Chaudhry from office in March. The subsequent protests by representatives of the professional corporation of lawyers and judges, supported by a wide range of public and political circles, overlapped with the authorities ' indecisive actions to combat Islamist and nationalist terrorism in Islamabad, Balochistan, the North-Western Border Province, and especially in the territory of Pashtun tribes controlled from the center. The election of General P. Musharraf as President for a new five-year term in October, his assumption of office and resignation as the army's top military leader at the end of November have largely normalized the political situation. It is more difficult to talk about the prospects for the development of the situation after the elections* due to the ambiguity of a number of issues: will all parties, only a part, or only pro-presidential parties participate in the elections? what will be the results of the elections and how will they be perceived by those political forces that are dissatisfied with them?
Speaking about possible election results and prospects for 2008, N. A. Zamaraeva noted that the real destabilization of the situation in Pakistan may begin after the elections. She's grown up-

* After the assassination of B. Bhutto on December 27, 2007. they were postponed from January 8 to February 18, 2008.

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There were doubts about the ability of the main political forces to confidently win the elections and form a stable government of the country. V. I. Sotnikov outlined three scenarios of possible political development of Pakistan in the near future: 1) the establishment of a new military regime in the period before or shortly after the elections, 2) the holding of free parliamentary elections, after which the political struggle will escalate due to the stratification of the electorate and the appearance of contradictions between different political forces to the fore, and 3) the establishment after the elections of the agreement of the winning political forces, which will ensure the

Summing up the results of Afghanistan's development in 2007, the head of the Afghanistan Sector, V. G. Korgun, emphasized their ambiguity. On the one hand, the Afghan authorities, relying on substantial foreign assistance, have made some progress in restoring and developing the country's national economic infrastructure (in particular, the construction of a circular highway connecting all major regions is almost complete, a significant number of primary schools have been built, and the number of children attending school, especially girls, has significantly increased). On the other hand, the socio-political situation in the country has not changed qualitatively. Under the effective control of the government in Kabul, which is supported by a 40-thousandth international contingent (NATO forces, mainly American), not all regions of the country remain under effective control, primarily only large cities. The countryside in the south and east of the country is controlled by the resurgent Taliban (the so-called new Taliban, organizationally linked to al-Qaeda and a network of international jihadist organizations). The main cost product of Afghan agriculture remains opium poppy (in 2007, an estimated record harvest of 8 thousand tons was grown). Many millions of Afghans still remain outside the country, in particular in Iran there are at least 2 million of them. human. Refugees are in no hurry to return to the country, and their return often leads to the creation of a cross-border control zone.

V. G. Korgun highlighted such an event in the development of the political situation in Afghanistan as the creation of a new political organization - the National Front, which united various political forces opposed to the government of H. Karzai. This association does not yet have significant prospects, but its formation reflects the growing weakening of the position of the ruling circles. In 2008, the political struggle in Kabul, which has largely parliamentary forms (almost the entire political spectrum from former communists to former Mujahideen is represented in the National Assembly), is likely to escalate and lead to new changes in the composition of the ruling elite. The growing influence of elements in it that are somehow connected with Islamist circles, the so-called moderate Taliban, is not excluded.

R. R. Sikoev, describing the chances of the Taliban movement, stressed that as long as a large contingent of foreign troops remains in Afghanistan, the possibilities of militant Puritans from Islam are limited. Their main calculation is based on the assumption of an imminent split in the ranks of the ruling forces in the country, the victory of Islamists among them, and a change in the overall international situation. The Taliban have made some military and political gains in a number of Pashtun and Baloch-Pashtun districts. Their actions are likely to lead to a further deterioration of the public safety and order situation in 2008.

R. M. Mukimdzhanova highlighted some aspects of the impact of the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan on the situation in Central Asia. Emphasizing that the ruling circles of both countries express interest in developing mutually beneficial, primarily trade and economic, relations with the Central Asian republics, the speaker noted that the development of relations between Pakistan and the key country in the Central Asian region of Uzbekistan is still hindered by Tashkent's suspicions that Islamabad does not actively block the subversive activities of Uzbek militants from the Islamic Movement). Central Asian countries generally express concern about the persistence of jihadist hotbeds in Pakistan and Afghanistan and the growth of drug production in the latter.

Making a report on the results of Iran's development in 2007 and prospects for the next year, Head of the Iranian sector N. M. Mammadova noted that the economic sanctions imposed against the country have slowed down the economic growth rate and are estimated at 4.5-5%. The share of the population below the poverty line remained high (40%), foreign capital inflows continued to decline, delays in the development of new hydrocarbon deposits increased, there is evidence of a new round of inflation that has begun, and the problem of unemployment is acute (according to official data, 15%; it is even higher in Greater Tehran with the number of residents along with about 20 million people are migrants).

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In the political sphere, according to Mammadova, significant changes took place in 2007: the influence of President Ahmadinejad decreased, and the positions of the "centrists" led by former President Hashemi - Rafsanjani strengthened. The influence of the younger generation of leaders is growing in the ranks of the ruling forces and opposing groups within them. At the same time, in 2007, the activity of the spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, A. Khamenei, significantly increased, trying to prevent the strengthening of the moderate wing in the leadership on the eve of the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2008. Despite these efforts, the election results may lead to the strengthening of "centrist reformers" and a correction in the course of domestic and foreign policy. It is possible that Iran will seek to establish a dialogue with the United States, move away from harsh rhetoric in an attempt to get out of isolation.

Kulagina noted that Iran has recently managed to achieve certain foreign policy successes. The first of these is the summit of the Caspian littoral states held in Tehran with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia has undoubtedly contributed to Iran's diplomatic success. Certain prospects opened up for him in terms of cooperation with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in the transport and energy fields. Tehran's second success was in the southern direction of its regional policy. In early December 2007, he was invited to participate in the regular session of the Heads of State of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and used this opportunity to take diplomatic revenge on the United States for the major international conference on the Palestinian-Israeli settlement held in November.

Referring to the issue of Iran's military nuclear program, V. I. Sotnikov noted that the Iranians want to make full use of the information published in early December by the American intelligence services about Tehran's cessation of work on creating an atomic bomb since 2003. The fact that these data are made public is likely to reduce pressure on Iran from the international community and give Washington and Tehran the opportunity to continue their cooperation on the Iraq issue that began in 2007. In addition, it will provide an opportunity for Russia and China to strengthen their positions on the Iranian nuclear program and expand cooperation with Iran.

Head of the Turkish Sector N. Y. Ulchenko made a report on the economic growth in Turkey in recent years. She stressed that during the current government of the Justice and Development Party (since 2002), economic growth has reached high rates (more than 7% of the average annual growth). The year 2007 can be described as quite successful, although the increase in external debt, primarily due to the obligations of private companies, causes some concern. Sustained economic growth creates an opportunity to activate the country's foreign policy in various areas: Europe, the Middle East, and West-Central Asia.

The peculiarity of the domestic political situation in Turkey, according to N. G. Kireev, consists in the confrontation of two political and ideological trends. One of them can be described as traditional for modern Turkey - secular, Laicist, but at the same time military-authoritarian, and the other - as "conservative-democratic", associated with the strengthening and coming to power of moderate pro-Islamic forces. The future development of the country in ideological and political terms will fluctuate within these paradigms.

At the present stage, Turkey is pursuing a very active foreign policy, Ivanova said. This is partly due to the difficult situation on its border with Iraq, from where it is threatened by Kurdish separatists from the Kurdistan Workers ' Party. Relations with the United States remain the most important aspect of Turkish foreign policy. There are certainly contradictions in the positions of Ankara and Washington on regional problems (Kurdish and Iraqi), but both capitals prefer to seek compromises. This was demonstrated during the meeting between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President George W. Bush on November 5, 2007. After the success achieved during the meeting, the United States once again started talking about a "strategic partnership" with Turkey. But much will depend on the solution of the problem of the Kurdistan Workers ' Party, as well as on the development of the situation in Northern Iraq.

During the discussion, it was noted that Ankara pays considerable attention to the Middle East direction, seeking to strengthen relations with both Muslim countries and Israel. It also plays an active role in the region, which can be conditionally called West-Central Asia. At the same time, it attaches great importance to relations with Azerbaijan and Georgia, as well as the Central Asian republics, and strives to maintain normal relations with Iran. Its relations with Pakistan are traditionally friendly. Turkish President

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A. Gul even tried to play the role of a mediator in the internal political confrontation in this country at the end of 2007.

B. M. Potskveria stressed that in the situation of increasing tension created by terrorist fighters from the Kurdistan Workers ' Party (PKK), Turkey has taken a number of tough measures-economic sanctions against the areas where PKK camps are located and the use of "hot pursuit" tactics with the passage of its troops across the border. The US position, he noted, has changed recently due to the intransigent position of Kurdish terrorists, becoming more favorable for Ankara. At the same time, the mood in Europe is not in favor of Turkey. Its membership in the EU is hindered, in addition to the Kurdish one, by a number of other problems (Armenian, Cypriot, human rights).

Continuing the topic of the Kurdish problem and Turkey, K. V. Vertyaev noted that Turkey undoubtedly opposes the creation of an independent Kurdistan region in northern Iraq. The speaker stressed that the Iraqi Kurds have actually created their own state with their own army and are inspired by the idea of independence. At the same time, their leaders believe that it is premature to declare independence, it is safer and more profitable to remain part of a federal Iraq for the time being.

N. Z. Mosaki described the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan in 2007. and he outlined several scenarios for 2008. He noted that the Kurdish regions of Iraq remained the safest and most prosperous in the country throughout the year. The main source of income for Iraqi Kurdistan was transfers from the Iraqi budget, which was formed from oil export revenues. There were two main problems in relations with the central government - the division of revenues from oil produced in the Kurdish region, and the fate of the oil-bearing region of Kirkuk, which adjoins but does not belong to Iraqi Kurdistan. A referendum on the status of Kirkuk is stipulated by the current Iraqi constitution, and disputes over when to hold it weigh heavily on relations between the authorities in Kurdistan and Baghdad. The problem of Kirkuk and the use of the territory of Northern Iraq by terrorists complicate relations between the Kurdish Autonomy in Iraq and Turkey, while the Kurds count, like Ankara, on the support of the United States, which is very positive in Kurdistan. N. Z. Mosaki proposed three scenarios for the development of the Kirkuk problem in 2008..

O. I. Zhigalina, Head of the Kurdish Studies Sector, devoted her report to the Kurdish problem as an international one in connection with the situation in the entire region of the main part of Kurds. She stressed that Turkey, Iran and Syria have common interests in connection with the actualization of the problem of Kurdish statehood. These States are making efforts to develop a common line of conduct on this issue. The Kurdish problem is also in the center of attention of the entire Arab world, which fears the destabilization of regimes in its area. The threat of Kurdish independence thus contributed to the strengthening of regional unity. If the Iraqi Kurds declare independence, Turkey, according to O. I. Zhigalina, will invade there, counting on the support of Iran, Syria and Arab states (Saudi Arabia, etc.). However, no drastic changes in the regional situation can be expected during 2008. At the same time, the main role is played by the "deterrent" position of the United States.

Touching upon the impact of world powers on the processes in the region, V. Ya. Belokrenitsky noted that the United States is directly involved in them. At the same time, their policies are moving away from unilateral actions and striving to move to a more "soft" course. These trends may be further developed after the upcoming US presidential election in November 2008. It is quite likely that the international political influence of such powers belonging to or adjacent to the region in question as Turkey and Saudi Arabia will increase in the future. They can, to a certain extent, "replace" the United States. Washington is unlikely to step up its confrontation with Iran. Tehran may also soften its position. China's role may become more active. Most likely, Russia's importance and involvement in the affairs of the entire Middle East region and its segment - West-Central Asia-will increase. The nature of Russia's regional policy will largely depend on the overall international situation.

In conclusion, V. Ya. Belokrenitsky thanked the participants of the meeting for interesting reports and opinions expressed during the discussion. A number of employees of the department (M. R. Arunova, L. B. Aristova, M. Y. Morozova, etc.) presented their reports in writing. Together with other materials of the meeting, they are published on the website of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences www.ivran.ru.

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