On March 6, 2006, the Department of Near and Middle East discussed the political problems of modern Pakistan. It was attended by employees of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of the Middle East, professors and teachers of the ISAA at Moscow State University and MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, correspondents of Russian newspapers, etc.

Head of the Pakistan SI Sector. Kamenev (IB RAS) noted the great scientific interest and practical significance of the problems put up for discussion.

V. N. Moskalenko (IB RAS) reviewed the main political events in Pakistan and gave some prognostic estimates of their development. An important domestic political event, in his opinion, was the local government elections held in the second half of 2005. And although, as usual, such elections were held on a non-partisan basis, according to experts and observers, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League im was successful in them. Qaid-i-Azama (PML). Block of the largest fundamentalist parties - MMA ("United Action Council") it was not supported by a significant part of the electorate. At that time, the situation in the country was relatively calm, at least not as tense as it is now. And most voters wanted a normal and peaceful life, hoping that it would be provided by the moderate PML, which is now the ruling and pro-presidential party, although the head of state Pervez Musharraf is not formally a member of it.

However, V. N. Moskalenko emphasized that the situation in the country had sharply worsened by the fall of 2005. Pakistan's continued involvement in the international coalition's operations in Afghanistan, the spread of military operations to Pakistani territory (the "Tribal Zone"), anti-government insurgent fighting in Balochistan province, "pinpoint strikes" by American aircraft on northern areas of Pakistan (where the Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters were supposed to be based), resulting in casualties among the local population, and other events led to an increase in discontent in the country. The general upsurge in the Muslim world due to the events in Iraq and the pressure on Iran had a great impact. In Pakistan, in late 2005 and early 2006, huge anti - Western and anti-government rallies and demonstrations were held; terrorist attacks, clashes between Sunnis and Shiites, and attacks on Christian churches became more frequent. Several attempts were made on Musharraf's life.

Local elections and their results, the speaker noted, usually largely allow us to anticipate the results of general parliamentary elections. However, a sharp change in the situation and public sentiment makes the forecast difficult. The question of future elections in 2007 has become acute for another reason. Due to the different interpretation of the term of office of General P. Musharraf (who retained the command of the Pakistani army in his hands), the problem of determining the time of the presidential election arose. Naturally, the ruling group defended their holding earlier than the parliamentary ones, while the entire opposition took opposite positions. The situation was further complicated by the question of General P. Musharraf's continued stay at the head of the army. The struggle continued until the beginning of March 2006, when, possibly in connection with the visit of George Bush, it was officially announced that first parliamentary elections would be held, then presidential elections, and then the issue of combining the highest state and military authorities would be resolved. If this decision is not changed, then everything, therefore, will depend on the results of the parliamentary elections, since the President of the Republic of Moldova will be elected in the next three years.-

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ta is elected by an electoral college consisting of members of Parliament and provincial legislative assemblies, who will be elected simultaneously with the Parliament.

Now it is too early to talk about possible election results. But it is clear that the future development of Pakistan will largely depend on their results. In fact, these elections will mean a clash of two leading political forces-radical Islamic, fundamentalist led by the MMA and moderate Islamic, grouped around the PML and P. Musharraf. According to V. N. Moskalenko, the latter group, which opposes extremes in the country's political life, against extremism and terrorism, and for the stability of various religious and ideological trends, is more in line with the national interests of the country. The current leadership is pursuing an active foreign policy aimed at diversifying its international relations, strengthening and expanding cooperation with as many foreign countries as possible, and combating international terrorism. Pakistan is successfully moving towards close cooperation with ASEAN, continues a comprehensive dialogue with India, and has joined such a powerful Eurasian organization as the SCO as an observer. Such a policy is in line with the interests of international cooperation, the interests of neighboring countries and other States, including Russia.

Head of the Department of Near and Middle East V. Ya. Belokrenitsky agreed with the main conclusions of the speaker. In his opinion, the regime will survive after the 2007 elections. But it is possible that Musharraf will lose his top military post. Considering the problems of Pakistan in a more distant perspective, V. Ya. Belokrenitsky considered the economic component to be the most alarming. The main problems in this regard are insufficient participation of Pakistan in the global economic division of labor, overpopulation of the country (the number of its inhabitants is approaching 160 million), increasing pressure on the land, increasing water scarcity, and environmental issues. Economic problems are intertwined with political ones, and their solution is often blocked by the latter. Thus, a long-running battle over a plan to build a major hydroelectric facility in Punjab ended in failure due to stubborn resistance from other provinces, who feared that all the benefits of the hydroelectric power plant would go to Punjab. Now there is an intention to build a large hydroelectric power station in the north of the country. Funds for this project have not yet been found. As time goes on, the energy and irrigation problem continues to worsen.

Sergey Kamenev recalled that a group of Russian newspaper correspondents and MSU ISAA professors A. A. Vigasin and A. L. Safronov recently visited Pakistan at the invitation of the Pakistani side.

Some participants of this trip shared their impressions of the country and its political life. A. L. Safronova positively described the current Pakistani leadership headed by P. Musharraf, its fight against extremism and terrorism, stability and clarity in its work. She particularly noted the high level of organization in the earthquake response (this work was directly led by General Farouk). The speaker expressed her opinion on the positive evolution of military regimes in Pakistan - from rigid and totalitarian to a certain synthesis of the military system and organization with democratic institutions and methods of governance, as can be seen in the example of the last, fourth regime of P. Musharraf.

A. L. Safronova noted the well-organized and cordial reception of Russian representatives who visited many cities of Pakistan, as well as places affected by the earthquake. They were received at the highest levels, including by President Musharraf and Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Aziza. This and much more demonstrates Pakistan's respect for Russia and its desire to develop broad cooperation with it. ISAA representatives signed an agreement on scientific cooperation and exchange of students and teachers with the oldest Lahore University on behalf of its leadership.

Then a discussion began on the problems of Russian-Pakistani relations. It was attended by S. N. Kamenev, correspondent of the newspaper "Kommersant" B. M. Volkhonsky, Director of the Institute of the Middle East E. L. Zhigun and others. Most attention was drawn to the weakness of bilateral relations between the two countries. The reasons cited were the past of their relations, inertia of thinking, lack of sufficient experience and appropriate structures for cooperation, too much focus on India, etc. B. M. Volkhonsky, for example, believes that the development of cooperation between the two countries is hindered by the fact that, according to Pakistanis, Russia looks at Pakistan through the eyes of India.

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In conclusion, S. N. Kamenev positively assessed the results of the discussion, noted its significance and thanked all those present for their active participation in it. He also expressed the opinion that it is necessary to hold such meetings in the future, expanding the circle of its participants, including at the expense of employees of practical organizations.

The discussion was followed by a presentation of the recently published book "Student Movement in Pakistan"by N. A. Zamaraeva (IB RAS).

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