The growth or decline of terrorist activity in the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the main factors determining the situation in the entire Middle East. This region is the main "incubator" of terrorist organizations that conduct their subversive activities not only in the region, but also around the globe. It also contains a large part of oil reserves, which makes the countries of the world community dependent on its supplies.

An analysis of terrorist activity in Iran over the past 11 years shows that there is an ethnic opposition to the existing regime in the country, represented by radical terrorist organizations that have recently become more active. However, their activities currently do not pose a direct threat to the existence of the Islamic system in Iran.

In recent years, Iran has been repeatedly subjected to terrorist attacks. They were organized by different groups and differed from each other in their methods of conducting them. The past decade includes two periods of terrorist activity. They are separated by the beginning of the US military operation in Iraq on March 20, 2003.

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Figure 1. Terrorist attacks in Iran from 1998 to 2003

The first period is characterized by the activity of mainly one terrorist group - the Organization of the Mujahideen of the Iranian People (OMIN), a left-wing extremist organization created in the 60s of the last century by students and graduates of the University of Tehran. Its members waged an armed struggle against the Shah's regime in Iran and initially supported the Islamic revolution of 1979. However, later OMIN accused the clergy of usurping power and launched large-scale terrorist activities against the regime. Dozens of Iranian political and religious figures, including the second President of Iran Ali Rajai, were killed in terrorist attacks organized by OMIN. The main forces of the OMIN were concentrated in Iranian Kurdistan for several years and were already defeated by the mid-80s. After that, the leaders of the organization moved to Western Europe, and the remnants of its formations - to neighboring Iraq, where they worked closely with the regime of Saddam Hussein, from where they carried out terrorist activities on the territory of Iran (Arsenov, 2005).

Until 1998, OMIN carried out more than two hundred terrorist acts on the territory of Iran, the largest number of which occurred in the periods from 1979 to 1982, as well as in 1994. As a result, more than three hundred people died [GTD 1, 2008].

By 1998, the organization had reduced its activity, but since 1999 it has again attracted attention. From that time until the beginning of 2003, OMIN committed 60 mass-reported terrorist acts (mostly mortar attacks and explosions of warheads), which resulted in the death of 16 people [GTD 2, 2008; TID, 2008]. The main location of terrorist attacks was Tehran, but sometimes OMIN activity was observed in other regions of the country (Figure 1).

In 2002, OMIN began to curtail its activities in Iran, fearing US attacks on its bases in Iraq (Arsenov, 2005). Since 2003, there has been no information about a single terrorist attack by the Mujahideen in Iran [TID, 2008].

The suspension of the OMIN fight can be explained by several reasons. First, its bases in northern Iraq were destroyed by US forces after the start of the US operation. The Americans disarmed several thousand of the organization's fighters, placing them in Camp Ashraf, about 75 km northeast of Baghdad. Second, a large group of Mujahideen were arrested in Europe. For example, on June 17, 2003, 165 members of the organization were arrested in France, and its headquarters on the outskirts of Paris was closed [Moeveny, 2003]. Third, a large number of

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members of OMIN surrendered to the Iranian authorities. On January 21, 2004, 144 Mujahideen returned to their homeland from Iraq (Terekhov, 2004). Fourth, the organization stopped claiming responsibility for the attacks because it feared being blacklisted after the September 11, 2001 attacks. However, in May 2002, OMIN was added to the US and European lists of terrorist organizations, which further complicated its existence. However, in mid-December 2008, the European Court of First Instance decided to remove her from its list [NCRI, 2008]. Now OMIN formally operates under the banner of the National Council of Iranian Resistance 1.

There is evidence that OMIN assisted the US army in its special operations in Iraq [TID, 2008], so despite the lack of references to the organization in connection with terrorist acts in Iran, it is quite possible that some members of OMIN still conduct subversive activities against Iran. This is confirmed, in particular, by the fact that the main instigator of the riots in Khuzestan 2 in April 2005, the Iranian special services named one of the OMIN activists [Abedin, 2005].

The period from 2002 to 2005 in Iran can be considered a time of calm. However, terrorist activity in the country has increased dramatically since 2005. At the same time, it is concentrated mainly in two regions: Khuzestan province (on the border with Iraq) and Sistan and Baluchistan province (on the border with Pakistan) (Figure 2). It should be added that both regions are mostly inhabited by Sunnis: Khuzestan - Arabs, and Sistan and Baluchistan - Baluchis.

Of the 46 terrorist attacks that have taken place in Iran since the beginning of 2003, two armed attacks, two contract killings and one attempted murder, 37 bombings, four hostage-taking cases, and kidnappings for ransom can be distinguished.

Armed attacks. On August 16, 2005, an armed man from the Pezhak anti-revolutionary group, known as the Iranian wing of the Kurdistan Workers ' Party, attacked a police station in Marivan, Kurdistan province. One police officer was killed and another was wounded.

On February 1, 2007, armed men ambushed a police patrol in Zahedan, the capital of Sistan and Baluchistan province. A police car patrolling the streets was pinned down by two cars, from which shots were fired. As a result, four policemen were killed.

Two policemen were killed and four taken hostage in an attack by unknown assailants in the Negor district of Sistan and Baluchistan province on February 28, 2007 [TID, 2005; TID, 2007].

Contract killing and attempted murder. On August 2, 2005, Judge Masoud Moghaddas, an employee of the Tehran Prosecutor's Office, was assassinated in Tehran. The judge was shot and killed by two motorcyclists passing by as he was leaving his office. Moghaddas presided over the trial of dissident journalist Akbar Ganji and sentenced him to 6 years in prison, and before that, handed down seven convictions to Iranian dissidents who advocated for reforms in Iran in the early 2000s. His murder may have something to do with his profession.-

1 National Council of Resistance of Iran. The Secretary General of the NSIS is Mariam Rajavi.

2 Mass riots in Khuzestan took place on April 16-17, 2005.The riots were caused by a forged letter allegedly coming from the presidential administration. It instructed local authorities to encourage "demographic change" in the province, in other words, to relocate ethnic Arabs living there to other parts of Iran. As a result of the riots and pogroms that broke out, about 20 people were killed and dozens were injured. There was also significant damage to the province's infrastructure. The Arab People's Democratic Front claimed responsibility for organizing the riots [Soldatov, 2007].

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Figure 2. Terrorist attacks in Iran from 2003 to 2008

public activities. A group that identified itself as the Partisan Fedaev 3 Armed Youth (VMPF) claimed involvement in the incident.

On August 28, 2005, an attempt was made to assassinate Judge Mohammad Reza Aghazadeh, head of a district court in the city of Karaj, Tehran province. As a result, the judge was injured [TID, 2005].

On October 3, 2007, a representative of the religious clergy of Iran, Mehdi Tavakkoli, was shot dead by terrorists in the town of Khash in Sistan and Baluchistan province (Soldatov, 2007).

Explosions. Seven bombs were detonated in Iran on June 12, 2005. As a result of the explosions, 11 people were killed and 89 injured. The bombs were detonated in two cities: Tehran, where 1 person was killed and 4 wounded, and Ahvaz (the capital of Khuzestan province), where 10 people were killed and 85 were wounded. Organizations such as the Arab Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz (ADBOA) claimed responsibility for the bombings.4, Arab Suicide Bombers of Khuzestan (ASS)5, Arab Popular Democratic Front (ANDF)6, Ahvaz Armed Revival (PVVA)Regiments7 [Elias, 2005].

On August 17, 2005, a mine was detonated near a police patrol in Sardasht (West Azerbaijan province on the border with Iraq). As a result of the explosion, one person was killed and 5 were injured. Official Tehran blamed the Iranian wing of the Kurdistan Workers ' Party for the attack.

Two bombs placed in dumpsters exploded five minutes apart in front of a shopping mall in Ahvaz on October 15, 2005.The incident occurred just after dusk, when people were shopping for food during the month of Ramadan. The explosion caused huge damage to cars and shops nearby. As a result, 6 people were killed and at least 102 wounded. By the end of 2005, Iranian police had arrested more than 30 people accused of involvement in the bombings.

On January 24, 2006, two bombs were detonated in Ahvaz. As a result of the incidents, 9 people were killed and 46 injured. The first detonated a bomb placed near the state Agency for environmental Protection, the second bomb exploded in a few minutes.

3 The Armed Youth of Cherikha-ye Fadayee (self-sacrificing guerillas).

4 The Arab Struggle Movement for Liberating Ahvaz.

5 Arab Martyrs of Khuzestan.

6 The Arab People's Democratic Front.

7 The Armed Renaissance Groups of Ahvaz (Afwaj ennahda al-musallaha al-Ahvaz).

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40 min. at the bank building. President Ahmadinejad was going to visit the city that day, but his arrival was canceled due to bad weather. ADBOA again claimed responsibility for the attacks, stating that "these bombings were revenge for the blood of our martyrs and a sign of our disgust for the terrorist Ahmadinejad, who was going to desecrate the land of Ahvaz with his visit" [TID, 2006]. A few days later, the police arrested about 50 people accused of carrying out the terrorist attack [TID, 2005; TID, 2006].

On the morning of February 14, 2007, a group of unknown assailants attacked and blew up a bus carrying members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)8. 18 people were killed and 31 were injured. The attack was well planned: a group of motorcyclists forced the bus to stop near a pre-prepared car bomb that was parked on the side of the road, and fired at it with automatic weapons. When the IRGC officers started running out of the bus, an explosion occurred [Soldatov, 2007].

On April 12, 2008, an explosion occurred in a mosque in Shiraz (Fars province). This terrorist attack claimed the lives of 14 people, more than 200 were injured. No one claimed responsibility for the incident (Shestakov, 2008).

On July 19, 2008, an IRGC military convoy was blown up in Tehran, killing at least 16 people and wounding many others. No one claimed responsibility for organizing the attack [Coughlin, 2008].

After the start of the US military operation in Iraq on March 20, 2003, several more bomb explosions occurred in Iran. On January 5, 2005, a series of explosions in Zahedan injured 4 children. Several explosions occurred near an oil field in Ahvaz on October 1, 2005, causing 3 oil rigs to catch fire. On May 7, 2006, the entrance to the office of the reformist newspaper Etemad-e Meli was blown up, and no one was injured. Two bombs were detonated in Kermanshah on May 8, 2006, but no one was killed [TID, 2005; TID, 2006].

Cases of kidnapping. In late June 2005, a previously unknown organization calling itself the Soldiers of God, Mozhdahedin Sunnah (SBMS)9 abducted Shehab Mansoori, an employee of the Iranian Ministry of Information. The organization issued an appeal to the official authorities of Iran that Mansouri will be killed if the state does not release supporters of this organization from prison. The group gave official Tehran three weeks to review their demands. On 12 July 2005, the group distributed a video showing the execution of Shehab Mansoori [TID, 2005].

In 2006, SBMS militants took more than 20 IRGC soldiers and Iranian officials hostage [AIR, 2007]. Their fate is unknown.

On December 4, 2008, it was officially announced in Iran that SBMS militants had executed 16 Iranian hostages. Abdolmalek Rigi, the leader of the SBMS, said that the hostages can only be released if all the Baloch people who were thrown there on political charges are released from the prisons of Iran. The authorities in Tehran immediately rejected such a request. All of the hostages were members of the law enforcement forces who were on active military service in the Sarawan garrison in Sistan and Baluchistan province. Six months before the execution, the garrison was attacked by SBMS militants, who took military personnel hostage. Usually, in such cases, the SBMS transports captured hostages to Pakistan, where it has its own bases with the necessary infrastructure. Approximately once every two to three weeks

8 The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the main component of the Iranian armed forces. It was created on the initiative of the leader of the Iranian revolution, Imam Khomeini, shortly after the fall of the Shah's regime in 1979. The main tasks of the IRGC are to protect the existing Islamic system in Iran, resolutely fight the enemies of the Islamic revolution, and repel foreign aggression together with the army.

9 Junud Allah Organization for the Sunni Mujahideen in Iran.

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hostages were shot two at a time, and all this happened in front of the lenses of television cameras. In early December, it became clear that none of the hostages were still alive. In September 2008, one of the hostages was released, but only because his relatives paid the SBMS a large monetary ransom [Mesamed, 2008].

The new terrorist organizations that took the place of OMIN, as described above, turned out to be just as radical.

SBMS. An organization operating in Sistan and Balochistan province that made its name known after the hostage-taking and subsequent murder of Shehab Mansoori. She then took more than 30 hostages, most of whom were shot. As noted above, the organization demanded that the official authorities release their supporters from Iranian prisons. There is evidence that it receives assistance from the United States and Saudi Arabia (Mesamed, 2008).

ADBOA. The organization, which operates in Khuzestan province, is an ethnic terrorist group that advocates for the independence of the Arab minority in Iran, with most of its members concentrated in Ahvaz, the capital of Khuzestan. The group claimed responsibility for two deadly attacks in Ahvaz. On 12 July 2005, when 10 people were killed and 75 injured, and on 24 January 2006, when nine people were killed and 46 were injured. Since January 2006, the organization has not claimed any responsibility for terrorist attacks in Iran.

ACH. One of the four groups that claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack in Ahvaz on July 12, 2005.The role of this movement in the events in Ahvaz is not entirely clear. The organization didn't mention itself again.

ANDF. A London-based separatist Marxist organization that advocates the independence of Khuzestan. Its main requirement is: "a Marxist Arab state for the people of Khuzestan". The Group took an active part in the mass unrest in Khuzestan in April 2005. The organization also took an active part in the preparation of the terrorist attacks in Ahvaz on July 12, 2005. After Al-Jazeera showed an interview with an ANDF spokesperson, Iran suspended the channel's operation in its country [Soldatov, 2007].

10Ahvaz Military Revival Group (GVVA). It is mentioned only in connection with the terrorist attack in Ahvaz on July 12, 2005.There is no other information about this organization.

VMPF. The group claimed responsibility for the murder of Judge Masoud Moghaddas, an employee of the Tehran Prosecutor's Office, in Tehran on August 2, 2005 (TID, 2007).

If we sum up the number of terrorist attacks since 2003 in the Iranian provinces, then in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan there were 11 acts of terrorism, 48 people were killed and 35 people were injured. In Khuzestan province, 25 terrorist attacks were committed, killing 42 and injuring 257 people, in Fars province, one terrorist attack killed 14 and injured about 200 people. In Tehran, five terrorist attacks were carried out (18 dead, 6 wounded), in Kermanshah province - two (6 wounded), in Kurdistan - one terrorist attack (1 dead, 1 wounded). The rest of the Iranian provinces were affected by four acts of terrorism (2 dead, 5 injured) (Figure 2). In just five years, 125 people were killed and 510 people were injured in terrorist attacks in Iran.

In total, more than a hundred media-covered terrorist acts have taken place in Iran since 1998. As a result, more than 130 people were killed and more than 570 injured. The dynamics of terrorist attacks are shown in Figure 3.Here we need to pay attention to one feature. If in the first half of the period under review the number of terrorist attacks was much higher than the number of people killed as a result, then since 2005, the number of terrorist attacks has increased significantly.-

10 Afwaz al-Nahdah al-Musallahah Al-Ahwaz, The Armed Renaissance Group of Ahvaz (ARGA).

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Figure 3. Number of terrorist attacks and the number of people killed as a result of terrorist attacks in Iran from 1998 to 2008

the opposite pattern is observed: with a small number of incidents, a significant number of victims are observed. This is especially true in 2008.

The Iranian authorities responded to terrorist attacks with numerous arrests and executions in the country's ethnic regions [AIR, 2008]. In November 2008 alone, 972 Baloch people were arrested in Iran on suspicion of terrorist activities (Mesamed, 2008).

In recent years, official Tehran has often accused the US and British special services of organizing terrorist acts. This statement is supported to some extent by independent sources. For example, the British newspaper The Independent reports that British special forces are currently operating in southeastern Iran [Fisk, 2007]. And on April 3, 2007, the American television company ABC News reported that since 2005, American intelligence had coordinated the actions of the SBMS group responsible for committing a number of terrorist attacks on Iranian territory. The TV company claimed that the United States financed the SBMS from funds beyond the control of the US President and Congress. The money was transferred to the group's leader, Abdulmalik Rigi, through Iranian emigrants with connections in Europe and the Persian Gulf (Soldatov, 2007).

Despite the increase in terrorist activity in Iran in recent years, its share in the regional context remains insignificant. For example, in November 2008 alone, 340 people were killed by terrorists in Iraq [Yurchenko, 2008]. This figure is more than twice the number of deaths from terrorist attacks in Iran over the past 11 years. Of course, the impact of one terrorist act on the political situation in a certain country can be ten times stronger than hundreds of terrorist attacks in another. This was proved by the activities of OMIN in the early 80s of the last century, when dozens of deputies of the Iranian parliament and President Ali Rajai were killed in several terrorist attacks at its hands. However, in Iran, nothing like this has been observed recently.

In general, over the past 11 years, there have been several trends in Iran. First, there was a cessation of active activities of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Iran. Secondly, in recent years, a significant number of ethnic terrorist organizations sponsored by the United States and its allies have appeared on the territory of the country. Third, the very nature of terrorist activity in the country has changed. In contrast to the OMIN, which during the period under review mainly staged mortar attacks.-

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arrows and explosions of warheads, new terrorist organizations operated in a more diverse manner. This was evident in the organization of contract killings, armed attacks, and hostage-taking. Fourthly, the number of victims of terrorist attacks has increased significantly in recent years with a relatively small number of terrorist attacks. These actions, as a rule, were very well planned, which also indirectly confirms the assistance of the special services of foreign countries in carrying them out. All these trends suggest that Iran will not be able to completely eliminate the terrorist threat in the near future. Moreover, it is likely to increase even more. This is indicated by the dynamics of the last three years, when the number of victims of terrorist attacks increased approximately twice every year.

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