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October 17, 2005 The Department of Kurdish Studies and Regional Problems of the Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences held a round table on the topic "The process of resolving the Kurdish problem in Iraq and its impact on the Kurdish areas of Turkey, Iran and Syria". The event was attended by employees of the Department of the Middle East, Department of Arab Countries, MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Director of the Institute of the Middle East E. L. Zhigun, Director of the Center for the Study of Eurasia L. I. Medvedko, representatives of the organization "Kurdish Autonomy" in Moscow and the Kurdish diaspora. The round table was attended by the official representative of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in Russia, Said Shorsh Said.

In his opening remarks, Zav. The O sector . I. Zhigalina noted that the activation of American policy in the Middle East has a great impact on the situation in ethnic Kurdistan. Its ethno-political center is increasingly shifting to Iraqi Kurdistan, where, under the auspices of the United States, Iraqi Kurds are strengthening their autonomous positions. After the parliamentary elections of January 30, 2005, the Iraqi Kurds defined their tasks for the near future. First of all, they supported the adoption of the federal principle of the new Iraq. At the same time, Iraqi Kurdistan, in their opinion, should become a region where Kurds can fully exercise their right to autonomy. In this regard, they took an active part in the process of forming new government structures. The summer of 2005 was marked by a struggle to include their demands in the text of the permanent Constitution, as well as the beginning of the process of political unification of the Kurdish Autonomy. M. Barzani was elected its president, and N. Barzani-Prime Minister. The constitutional referendum held on October 15, 2005, showed that the Kurds managed to defend a number of important requirements for them, in particular the principle of federalism as the basis of a new state. In this regard, it is important to analyze the impact of the settlement of the Kurdish problem in Iraq on the Kurdish areas of Turkey, Iran and Syria and the policy of these countries on the Kurdish issue.

In his speech, Shorsh Said positively assessed the political processes currently taking place in Iraq, as they allow the Kurds to solve their tasks to one degree or another. They managed to consolidate in the permanent Constitution the successes achieved during the existence of the Kurdish Autonomy. The situation in the social sphere and in the field of education has improved; the level of well-being of the population has increased; freedom of the press and speech have been legally established; television and radio broadcasting in the Kurdish language and the Internet have become important in the life of the Kurdish community; the educational level of the population has increased, five universities are functioning, etc.

Shorsh Said that the main sources of economic development of the Kurdish Autonomy are funds allocated by the Iraqi state budget (17%), deductions due to an increase in oil prices from the amounts transferred by donor countries for the reconstruction of Iraq, as well as part of the funds received by the Kurds for oil transit through their territory. The Kurds actively participated in the political life of the country in order to gain advantages for the development of autonomy. Although the Sunnis did not participate in the referendum on a permanent Constitution, they later admitted this mistake. For the sake of holding a referendum on a permanent constitution, the Kurds made compromises on important issues for them, namely: the requirement to include Kirkuk in the Kurdish Autonomy was removed; the definition of its new borders and the inclusion of other areas of compact Kurdish residence in its composition (i.e., the problem of broad autonomy); although control over the use of natural resources if they are within the competence of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the latter cannot dispose of them without approval from the center, as well as use them for military purposes, etc. At the same time, the Kurds managed to defend the issue of maintaining their own army and special services to ensure the security of the Kurdish autonomy.

The Permanent Constitution establishes the federal principle of building a new Iraqi State, in which the Kurdish region becomes a federal subject. Kurdish autonomists believe that a permanent Constitution meets the interests of all Iraqis and does not allow the construction of an Islamic state following the example of Iran. It guarantees the rights of women that for

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Kurds are an important factor: women currently make up 1/4 of the members of the current parliament. The Basic Law establishes the democratic principle of development of the new state. In December 2005, a new Parliament was elected.

Further, the participants of the meeting exchanged views.

The issue of the role of the United States in the fate of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq was actively discussed. Some experts positively assessed the fact of the violent overthrow of S. Hussein (a representative of the Moscow Kurd diaspora, Sir . Khadjiev ), and the impact of the American presence in Iraq on the development of democratic institutions in the Kurdish Autonomous Region (V. Ya . Mgoi-IV RAS, I. V. Stepanova - MGIMO). Others expressed doubts that the Kurds ' focus only on US assistance would ensure that they would achieve their goals, since the Americans are primarily pursuing their own economic and political goals. Many speakers were of the opinion that the United States ' civilizing mission in Iraq and in the region as a whole is unlikely to have a favorable outcome (F. Baderkhan - Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences; S. Druzhilovsky - MGIMO; and . E. Fedorova, O. I. Zhigalina -IB RAS). At the same time, a wide variety of arguments were given. Thus, S. B. Druzhilovsky believes that the reforms imposed from above do not always and not in all correspond to the national traditions of Iraqi society and political realities. The Americans use the coincidence of their interests with the interests of the Iraqi Kurds for pragmatic purposes. They control all the processes taking place in the Kurdish Autonomy, and impose American-style democracy on them from the outside. The last argument was commented on by F. Baderkhan stressed that the goal of the Americans is not democracy in Iraq, but consolidation in the Persian Gulf. The negative reaction of Iraqi Sunnis to the United States ' policy in Iraq is related to their fears that the country's oil fields will end up in the hands of the United States (which, by the way, do not give any guarantees about this). The expert expressed confidence that the form of federalism adopted by Iraq will lead to the cantonization of the country, which, in his opinion, is fraught with its disintegration. V. Ya. Belokrenitsky stressed that even if the United States does not fulfill its civilizing mission in Iraq and the region, its presence in the Middle East will nevertheless contribute to the development of the country. getting them certain benefits. According to G . P. According to Avdeev, the civilizing role of the United States was positive in mono-ethnic states and ambiguous in multinational ones.

Questions about the duration of the presence of coalition troops, their possible withdrawal from Iraq and the impact of these processes on the fate of the Kurdish autonomy were also covered in the speeches of the participants of the round table. Some experts believe that Americans are unlikely to stay there until the end of 2007. According to B. M. Akhmedova( YVES RAS), for the United States, the Kurds and the Arabs cannot be undisputed allies. During the stay of the Americans in Iraq, they failed to achieve the main thing - to open access to Iraqi oil . A number of factors: natural disasters in the United States, the weakening of the political rating of President George W. Bush, and the protests of the international community against the occupation of Iraq indicate the futility of the further presence of coalition troops in this country (G. I. Starchenkov-IVE RAS). At the same time, participants in the discussion stressed that the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq will cause instability in the country, which may escalate into a civil war.

In the opinion of many participants in the discussion, the intensification of the Russian Federation's policy can contribute to the stabilization of the situation in Iraq and in the region as a whole. In this regard, Shorsh Said that the beginning of cultural cooperation between the Kurdish Autonomy and Russia has already been laid: Kurdish students have been accepted to study in higher educational institutions of the Russian Federation, and the issue of establishing a Russian consulate in Erbil is being considered.

Discussing this issue, many experts stressed the expediency of using Russia's authority in the peacekeeping field in Iraq.

The question of the attitude of neighboring countries to the Kurdish settlement in Iraq was also raised in a number of speeches. The presence of foreign armed forces directly on the borders of Turkey, Syria and Iran, as well as the emerging developments in resolving the Kurdish issue in Iraq, threaten the stabilization of the situation in the Kurdish areas of these countries and their national integrity. And despite the fact that the regimes in neighboring countries positively assess the political aspirations of the Iraqi Kurds and favorably treat the election of J. R. R. Tolkien. To their demand for the immutability of state borders, the above-mentioned countries are making efforts to weaken the political significance of the Iraqi Kurds and are not interested in increasing their influence in the Kurdish areas of their countries.

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There was also an active Israeli policy towards the Kurdish Autonomy. By supporting the Iraqi Kurds, Israel is showing its hostility to Iran. Israel's policy is conditioned by its contradictions with Turkey and Syria (E. V. Dunaeva-IVE RAS).

In a number of speeches (E. V. Dunaeva, Shorsh Said ) the question of the possible formation of a Shiite region was considered. It was stressed that this problem is difficult to solve, as armed clashes occur between various Shiite groups. For example, the groups of Hakim and Sadr are engaged in a sharp religious and political struggle, since the former advocates the establishment of an Islamic form of government in Iraq, and Sadr - for the separation of secular and religious authorities. According to the speakers, the formation of the Shiite region as a federal subject will not be an easy process.

A number of speakers noted the active policy of Turkey in northern Iraq. Some experts believe that Turkey allegedly intends to return Mosul, which in 1925 was annexed to Iraq in accordance with the decision of the League of Nations Commission (LCC). Mgoi ). According to B . M. Potskverii (IB RAS), there is no official information about such intentions of Turkey. Its policy on the Kurdish issue is largely determined by the struggle for influence in northern Iraq between its regional neighbors and Israel.

Konstantin Vertyaev (IB RAS) believes that Turkish policy in Iraqi Kurdistan is characterized by restraint. However, according to Shorsh Said, it is quite active.

Much attention was paid to the discussion of the Kurdish issue in Turkey in connection with its intention to join the European Union. The speakers noted that the unresolved issue in Turkey itself worsens its relations not only with EU members, but also with the United States. The existing geopolitical instability due to the Kurdish policy of the Turkish authorities does not suit the EU. At the same time, it is important to note that the Turkish Kurds oppose Turkey's accession to the EU.

In general, the experts concluded that Turkey lacks a holistic concept of policy on the Kurdish issue. This allows different political movements to take their own positions on this issue, which leads to inconsistency of actions. At the same time, all of them are determined to resolve the Kurdish issue peacefully, without armed confrontation, and are in favor of granting national and cultural autonomy to the Turkish Kurds. In part, this course is already being implemented in a number of areas with a compact Kurdish population. At the same time, the ambiguity of the attitude of the Turkish authorities towards Kurdish political parties was also noted. Thus, the PKK, which has been declared a terrorist organization, is unlikely to ever be recognized. At the same time, some Turkish parties, which largely express the interests of the Kurdish population, are supported by the Turkish leaders. However, the PKK's struggle for the role of leader of the Kurdish National Democratic Movement in the region provokes its clashes with the KDP of Iraq.

Many experts noted the process of splitting the Kurdish movement in the Kurdish areas adjacent to Iraqi Kurdistan, which are among the most economically and socially underdeveloped regions of the countries mentioned above. Some Kurdish political parties support the course of the Iraqi Kurds towards achieving real autonomy, while others take a restrained position. The United States has a significant influence on the Kurdish movement in Syria and Iran, which causes a negative reaction from the ruling circles of these countries, who are trying to suppress the Kurdish movement for their rights by force. This contributes to the development of multidirectional processes in the Kurdish areas. On the one hand, politicians of the new generation are trying to create new political organizations whose tasks include resolving contradictions by peaceful means in accordance with the realities of today (for example, the organization National Democratic Movement, headed by L. Zana). On the other hand, the unresolved Kurdish issue in West Asian countries contributes to the emergence of radical nationalist groups, for example, " Free Falcons "in Turkey or" Pagak "("Free Life Party of Iranian Kurdistan"), consisting of Kurds from all parts of ethnic Kurdistan. Concerns are raised about the recruitment of Kurds in a number of the Ansar al-Islam terrorist organization, as well as the emergence of Kurdish terrorist organizations in the Kurdish Autonomy of Iraq proper (O. I. Zhigalina).

The participants of the round table paid great attention to the prospects for resolving the Kurdish problem both in Iraq and in the region as a whole. It was noted that the future of the Kurdish settlement in the region largely depends on both global factors and specifics

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political processes in the Kurdish areas of the region's countries (Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey). One group of analysts believes that positive political developments in the new Iraq will help resolve the contradictions related to the issue of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, as well as a peaceful solution to the Kurdish issue in Iran, Syria and Turkey. Another group of experts takes a more cautious position, since there are too many opponents of Kurdish national self-determination in Iraq. Moreover, they are groups, often armed, of various ideological and political orientation. Moreover, in the Kurdish Autonomous Region proper, the opposition to the ruling clan is becoming more active, beginning to criticize its leadership for being too accommodating to the Americans, the lack of genuine democracy, etc. It is important that these contradictions do not lead to armed clashes. Otherwise, all their efforts to gain their national rights will be doomed to failure. At the same time, experts noted that if the existing borders are preserved, we can expect to grant national and cultural autonomy to the Kurds of Syria and Turkey. The point of view was expressed that Kurds should fit into modern civil society, in particular in Turkey, where the process of national and cultural liberalization in Kurdish areas has already begun, since it is allowed to use the Kurdish language in a number of media outlets and study it in courses in special Kurdish cultural centers in Eastern Anatolia.

It is problematic to resolve the Kurdish issue peacefully in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where the position of neoconservatives led by the new president of the country, M. Ahmadinejad, has strengthened, and the Kurdish population treats him negatively, since his name is associated with the incident in Vienna in 1989. Then, during the negotiations between the Iranian Kurds and Iranian fundamentalists, the General secretary of the DPIK, A. Qassemlu, was killed, who put forward the concept of a federal structure of post-monarchic Iran and tried to practically implement it after the overthrow of the Shah's regime. However, Imam Khomeini made efforts to put into practice his concept of a theocratic state. In particular, it does not distinguish between Shiites and Sunnis, and also denies ethnic diversity, since priority is given to the Muslim community and the principle of "velayat-e faqih" (spiritual leader of the country).

In the current geopolitical situation, with the presence of coalition forces in Iraq, it seems appropriate to preserve the territorial integrity of the countries where Kurds live, to observe the principle of voluntary unification of peoples into multinational state entities, while providing them with equal opportunities for socio-economic development, especially for the Kurdish population that is discriminated against, on a democratic basis, along with other peoples of the region. Meanwhile, the use of the Kurdish factor is becoming an element of American foreign policy, which is generally pragmatic in nature. At the same time, the Kurdish issue is given a supporting role in the implementation of US goals. The United States is attracted by the secular nature of the Kurdish community in a Muslim environment, on the one hand, and on the other - by the geographical and strategic position of ethnic Kurdistan, its proximity to the Caucasus-Caspian region, the presence of rich natural resources, water, etc. on its territory.

As for the Kurds themselves, in Iraqi Kurdistan, the US presence in Iraq is assessed differently. The answer to this is the participation of some Kurds in terrorist and nationalist groups that are ready to defend the interests of the Kurds with weapons in their hands. With the same goals in general, Kurdish political organizations prefer to act separately. The long-standing traditionalism of social structure and psychology, as well as some other factors, do not contribute to the widespread formation of reuniting tendencies. Those of the Kurdish political movements, whose activities are of a national-democratic nature, obviously deserve a positive assessment. They show a certain interest in the methods and forms of solving domestic political issues in Russia. It is important for Kurds to maintain stability in the Kurdish areas and make efforts for peaceful and creative development in ethnic Kurdistan.

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