On December 7, 2009, the Turkey Sector of the Department of Near and Middle East Countries of the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences held a round table "Turkey in the context of new international and domestic realities".
The following issues were discussed: new initiatives in the internal policy of the Turkish government; waqfs in Turkey in the XX century: essential transformations of the traditional institution; glocalization in Turkish; the Kurdish issue in the context of citizen formation-
Russian society in modern Turkey; cooperation between Russia and Turkey in the field of energy policy; the impact of the EU negotiations on the implementation of reforms in Turkey (1999-2009); Turkey and the IMF: prospects for cooperation; Turkey's activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia; Turkey's relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan; Turkey: building bridges with its neighbors; politics Turkey's involvement in the Black Sea region during the conflict in the South Caucasus in the summer of 2008.
The round table was attended by employees of the sector and the Institute, MSU ISAA, as well as representatives of the Turkish side.
In his report on new initiatives in Turkey's domestic policy, A.D. Vasiliev (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that the results of the local government elections in late March 2009. They forced the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to reconsider its domestic political strategy. As a result, representatives of the AKP put forward a number of socio-political reform projects that provide for significant changes in domestic policy, called "initiatives". One of the most important reforms is the "Democratic Initiative". It is planned to introduce a number of amendments to the basic law, which will significantly liberalize political life in Turkey, bringing it closer to European standards and reducing the influence of the military. The Kurdish Initiative reform is a project of measures to attract the Kurdish population to participate in the political life of the country. However, the Government has not yet formulated specific provisions for this reform. The announcement of the reforms comes amid ongoing unrest in the south-east of the country. The Alevi factor became more active during the elections. Alevis are one of the most numerous religious groups in Turkey. Solving the Alevi confessional problems could attract potential voters to the AKP camp, but so far the AKP's negotiations with the Alevis have not yielded results. The goal of the Barracks Initiative project is to improve the life of military personnel, eliminate unconstitutional activities, lawlessness and strict observance of human rights in the Turkish army. First of all, changes in the status and status of ordinary soldiers of the Turkish army are envisaged.
AKP representatives note that the "initiatives" will be carried out in connection with the harmonization of Turkish legislation with the legal norms of the European Union. According to A.D. Vasiliev, this fact once again confirms how significant the consequences of the Republic of Turkey's accession to the EU can be.
The report of P. V. Shlykov (ISAA) considered the transformation of the traditional institution of Waqfs in Turkey during the XX century. In his opinion, the revival of the institution of waqfs as a private social initiative was promoted by the gradual strengthening of Islamic influence in Turkey in the second half of the 20th century, the liberalization of the economy in the 1950s (the course towards a mixed development model), as well as the small number of social institutions of the state itself. Since the end of the 1960s, the importance of private philanthropy in the socio-economic life of Turkey has been further strengthened by the lifting of the ban on private charitable activities. Today, however, there is a legal uncertainty about the waqfs, as a result of which the latter are outside the sphere of public and state control. Thus, for Islamists, waqfs are the most convenient form of social initiative. As for the Turkish authorities, during the second half of the XX century. they supported the revival of Waqfs, on the one hand, seeing in this opposition to the spread of leftist ideas, and on the other, seeking to incorporate traditional social institutions into the modern, social, economic and cultural life of Turkey. According to P. V. Shlykov, a promising way to develop waqfs is to integrate them into international institutions and turn them into structures close to international funds, as well as to create an effective system for mitigating social contradictions on their basis.
V. K. Yegorov (Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences) considered the problems associated with modern processes of globalization. The idea of a unipolar world, according to which strong economies control the world situation, which became widespread in the early 1990s, gradually disappeared after 2001. It became clear that in addition to the economy, there is also a powerful cultural factor that is of great importance for each nation-state. S. Huntington's theory (the interaction of different cultures through their civilizational collision) actually raised the question of the existence of humanity itself. In view of this, in 1994 the English sociologist R. Robertson proposed the concept of glocalization, designed to harmonize the processes of globalization by taking into account local (regional) features of national cultures.
V. K. Yegorov stressed that in the light of the new theory, Turkey as a country with strong Islamic traditions and a long history of Westernization is an example of cross-cultural interaction and consistent globalization. This will allow Turkey to enter the top ten leading economies in the world in the foreseeable future and become the strongest regional power.
The report of K. V. Vertyaev (IB RAS) examined the process of democratization in Turkey. It was noted that the reforms initiated by the government of R. Erdogan could not be completed without resolving the Kurdish issue. However, for the ruling AKP, the support of 45% of the population for the project of democratizing interethnic relations is not sufficient, given the increased criticism from the nationalist Turkish opposition. Successful implementation of the reforms required the support of a wider part of the electorate, especially since the need to resolve the Kurdish issue is understood by representatives of the entire political spectrum of Turkey - both right and left. The closure of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Community Party (HDP) by the Constitutional Court in mid-December 2009 appears to be a political "castling" in which the Erdogan government had to sacrifice the HDP in order to mitigate the reaction of its nationalist electorate. The PDS was the force that initially supported the implementation of radical reforms in interethnic relations in Turkey. However, with the announcement of the "Kurdish Initiative" in April 2009. The PYD has significantly distanced itself from the government, saying that it does not consider the reforms proposed by R. Erdogan sufficiently decisive. Konstantin Vertyaev believes that the current realities of Turkey are such that the Kurdish issue becomes a bargaining chip in the political struggle, and sometimes an element of political PR. At the same time, the mixed public reaction to the constitutional court's decision and the desire of the Erdogan government to continue these reforms suggest that the legitimization of the Kurds as a political factor in modern Turkey is quite real.
H. F. Bingolom (MSU) reviewed cooperation between Russia and Turkey in the field of energy policy. He stressed that trade and economic ties between Russia and Turkey occupy a priority place in relations between them, and the energy component has become their most important area. As a result of the development of bilateral economic ties in 2008, Russia ranked first in Turkey's foreign trade turnover, while Turkey ranks fourth in Russia's exports, being the second largest consumer of Russian natural gas after Germany. Despite the problems that existed at the initial stage, the constructive nature of energy cooperation between the two countries makes a significant contribution to increasing mutual trust and convergence of positions on many issues of bilateral relations. Thus, today the relations between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey are an example of good-neighborly relations and cooperation in the field of regional security.
The report of V. I. Shlykov (ISAA) examined the impact of negotiations with the EU on the implementation of reforms in Turkey in 1999-2009. It was noted that the reason for such a long negotiation process between the EU and Turkey on the latter's accession to the European Union (since 2004) was explained by the EU's unwillingness to include Turkey in its composition due to the uniqueness of this country, whose population overwhelmingly professes Islam. Nevertheless, the negotiation process was supposed to be completed by 2014 in case of democratization of the Turkish political system, expansion of the rights of national minorities, settlement of the Cyprus and Armenian problems, etc. Turkey's reforms were most intensive in 2000-2005 (the so-called golden period of reforms), which was due to the desire of the Turkish leadership to accelerate the process of European integration. Its slowdown since the end of 2005 is explained by the difficulties of implementing reforms for the ruling AKP due to the aggravation of the internal political situation. Nevertheless, after another victory in the 2007 elections, the AKP stepped up its efforts to join the EU, as evidenced by the adoption of a new package of laws in 2009 that reformed the Turkish state system. According to V. I. Shlykova, the implementation of reforms has had an impact on changing the socio-political situation in Turkey for the better, but the process of joining the European Union will be long due to the difficulties that the AKP leadership will face in implementing more radical reforms compared to the previous period.
The report of N. Y. Ulchenko (IB RAS) considered the prospects of cooperation between the IMF and Turkey. After the financial and economic crisis that affected the country in 2001, Turkey entered a period of stabilization and fairly stable growth, supported by IMF loan assistance. In May 2008, the last of the three stabilization loan agreements concluded with the Fund since the late 1990s expired.
economic stabilization and growth have been argued in favor of a more independent economic policy. The global financial crisis has forced the resumption of cooperation with the Fund, but the Turkish government is trying to insist that the focus should be shifted from providing loans to cover the current account deficit of the balance of payments to loans to finance the budget deficit. Although the Fund has softened its fiscal discipline requirements for Turkey under the influence of the crisis, it is not ready to change the concept of providing financial assistance in accordance with the wishes of the Turkish leadership. As a result, the future relations of the parties remain very uncertain. The state of uncertainty and continuation of negotiations with the IMF without achieving the final result at the moment is probably more in Turkey's interests than one or another fait accompli in the development of relations, since it allows the Turkish authorities to irresponsibly increase public spending and at the same time maintain hope for the national financial market, which attaches great importance to the agreement with the IMF. Since the Fund does not rush Turkey to make a decision, the status quo has a chance to continue for some time.
The report of I. I. Ivanova (IB RAS) analyzed Turkey's relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan. It was noted that Turkish-Pakistani relations have traditionally been close and friendly for more than half a century. However, recognition in the 1990s Pakistan's use of the Taliban as the central Government of Afghanistan has brought these relations to a state of stagnation. The situation began to change after President Musharraf came to power in Pakistan. Military, political, and cultural cooperation has traditionally developed between the two countries, but the level of economic ties is not so high. After the overthrow of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, Turkey became an active participant in the international Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan. It is also working hard to strengthen the country's education, health and industrial infrastructure. At the initiative of Turkey, a series of trilateral high-level meetings were held in Ankara and Istanbul from 2007 to 2009, where the Turkish side performed a kind of mediation function in normalizing Afghan-Pakistani relations.
In her report on Turkey's policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia, E. I. Urazova (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) stressed that after the collapse of the USSR, the development of multifaceted ties with the post-Soviet republics of the South Caucasus and Central Asia is becoming one of the most important directions of Turkey's foreign policy, as this was supposed to help solve a number of domestic and geopolitical tasks that it faced. Already in the 1990s, in conditions of economic and political instability and limited opportunities, Turkey was able to take a prominent position in the markets and banking systems of the region's countries, launch large-scale contract construction activities there, initiate the laying of pipelines to deliver Caspian oil and gas to the country and further to the world markets, and actively join the EU project on the creation of the TRACECA transport corridor, as well as the provision of humanitarian and technical assistance, primarily for training and retraining of personnel. The main role in organizing and coordinating this activity is played by the specially created state structure "Turkish Agency for Cooperation and Development". Important attention is paid to strengthening the legal and institutional framework of cooperation, its unification in accordance with EU standards, to which Turkey has already adapted due to joining the European Customs Union. At the same time, according to E. I. Urazova, in the last decade, when selling its goods and services, Turkey faces growing competition from European and Asian countries that conduct trade and invest in the countries of the region. The continued penetration of Turkish capital into the region's markets requires increased state support and, at the same time, improved quality of Turkish products.
In his report, G. I. Starchenkov (IB RAS) analyzed the establishment of contacts between Turkey and its neighbors, highlighting a number of areas of Turkish foreign policy. These are, first, good-neighborly relations with Ukraine and strengthening ties with the Crimean Tatar community, which receives serious economic assistance. Secondly, there is an active policy in the Black Sea region, which consists in the Turkish initiative of laying oil and gas pipelines through its territory. This implies good relations with Russia and the establishment of ties with Abkhazia, the refusal to formally recognize the sovereignty of which does not prevent Turkey from conducting active trade with the republic and increasing its influence in this country, relying on the following principles:
the Muslim part of the population and the Abaza community in Turkey itself. Third, the emergence of so-called football diplomacy aimed at improving relations with Armenia. G. I. Starchenkov noted that the problem of Kirkuk and Mosul, as well as its negative attitude to the election of the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurds (PUK) Jalal Talabani, still hinders Turkey in establishing good-neighborly relations with Iraq. Nevertheless, the negative attitude towards Kurdish extremism provides an opportunity for a Turkish-Iraqi dialogue, in particular on the Kurdish Autonomous Region (KAR), which is problematic for the two states. Finally, and fifthly, it is good neighborly relations with Israel. Relations with this country were complicated after the Israeli invasion of Gaza (2007). However, the signing by the Turkish government of an agreement with Russia on the construction of the Novorossiysk-Sinop-Ceyhan gas pipeline, which will allow Russian gas to be delivered to Israel directly through Turkey, revived Turkish-Israeli relations. According to G. I. Starchenkov, relations with Israel are an example of Turkey's "parallel diplomacy".
A.V. Boldyrev's report (IV RAS) analyzed Turkey's policy in the Black Sea region during the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict in the summer of 2008. It was noted that Turkey's policy was based on the 1936 Montreux Convention.: 1) the caution with which Turkey reacted to the request of the US government to allow American warships to pass through the Straits; 2) the build-up of the NATO Black Sea group and Turkey's participation in it did not have an anti-Russian character, since it was carried out as part of the annual exercises of the alliance; 3) the implementation of passage through the straits and the conditions in accordance with the Montreux Convention, as evidenced by the absence of formal claims by Russia against Turkey and the withdrawal of NATO forces from the Black Sea after the expiration of the stay period provided for in the Convention. According to A.V. Boldyrev, Turkey's policy during the August crisis was of an equal nature. This is evidence that in modern conditions the Montreux Convention is most in line with the interests of Russia and Turkey.
Employees of the sector N. G. Kireev and A. G. Hajiyev presented their reports in writing, and I. I. Ivanova-an additional report, in which she considered the problem of Turkish-Iranian relations.
The holding of the round table allowed the participants to identify new directions of Turkish foreign and domestic policy, highlight a number of topical issues facing this country at the moment, and outline ways for Turkey to interact with the countries of the Middle East region and with Russia.
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