Turkey Keywords:, energy, Nabucco

HASSAN FATIH BINGOL

(Turkey)

Post-graduate student, Faculty of Political Science, Lomonosov Moscow State University

The ever-increasing demand of developed and developing countries for non-renewable energy sources is exacerbating the issue of energy security and leading to a struggle for control over energy resources and their transportation. Energy issues often play a key role in international relations, including affecting relations between the European Union and Turkey.

Experts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate that global demand for primary energy resources* will increase by an average of 1.6% annually by 2030, mainly due to the continued rapid economic development of China and India, which will account for more than half of the increase in demand.¹

The forecasts of the two largest oil and gas companies Exxon-Mobile for 2030 and Royal Dutch Shell for 2050 generally confirm the IEA's conclusions about trends in global demand: oil will remain the dominant form of energy, and the share of natural gas (as an energy source) will increase significantly, despite the development of the latest technologies for using renewable sources energy ².

SOUTH STREAM OR NABUCCO ?

EU countries cover 61% of their natural gas needs through imports. The main suppliers of natural gas to the EU are Russia (42%), Norway (29.5%) and Algeria (16.5%).³. The EU's dependence on natural gas imports may reach 80% ^{in 2030.4}

The picture does not change in the field of oil import, where Russia (33%) and Norway (16%) occupy the first places [⁵]. The IEA forecast indicates that the EU's dependence on oil imports will be 92% in 2030, compared to 79% in 2000.6 Based on these forecasts, it can be argued that after 2030, EU countries will face an acute shortage of energy carriers 7.

In order to overcome the potential energy shock caused by a shortage of energy sources, the European Commission at its summit in March 2007 identified "sustainable, efficient and diversified energy supply"as a priority for future energy policy.⁸

Russia plays a key role in ensuring Europe's energy security. Acute gas conflict (2005-2006)

Russia's trade with Ukraine, through which 80% of Russian blue fuel transit takes place, has served as a serious reason for the EU to doubt Russia as a reliable supplier of energy resources. ⁹ The solution to this problem may be the commissioning of the South Stream gas pipeline.

South Stream is a joint project of Gazprom and the Italian energy company Eni, which involves the construction of a gas pipeline through Russia through the Black Sea and further to the countries of Southern and Central Europe. The total investment in the project is estimated at 10 billion rubles. euro. The project capacity of South Stream is $ 63 billion. ^m3 of gas per year, and commissioning is scheduled for late 2014-early 2015. One of the branches will be laid on the territory of Bulgaria through Serbia, Hungary, Slovenia to the border with Italy. It is planned that another branch will pass through Hungary in an accident. Another direction of South Stream is a gas pipeline from Bulgaria to Greece with the possibility of continuing under the sea from Greece to Italy (if you choose the option of gas supplies to the southern part of Italy)¹⁰.

However, South Stream does not fully meet the requirements of the EU, which seeks to diversify energy sources (by type of energy and by country-its suppliers and transporters), as far as possible, bypassing Russia.

In its search, the EU Commission pays special attention to access to Caspian, Central Asian and Middle Eastern gas and oil. It should be emphasized that a significant part of the Caspian oil is produced by European producers.

* Energy resources are divided into primary and secondary. Primary sources are the results of natural processes and include such fuels as oil, gas, coal, uranium, as well as renewable types of energy-solar, wind, water resources, etc. Secondary energy resources are processed or converted fuels, refined petroleum products, refined coal fuel, waste steam, waste heat, and hot gases. Melamed L. B., Suslov N. I. Ekonomika energetiki: osnovy teorii [Economics of Energy: Fundamentals of theory]. Novosibirsk, Publishing House of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2000, p. 38.

Routes for transportation of energy resources from two competing projects - Nabucco and South Stream.

companies. Thus, it is obvious that the creation of the Caucasus-Turkey-Europe energy corridor and plans to connect the Caspian countries to it is of key importance for the West both in terms of diversifying energy imports and in view of preserving the profits of its own companies.¹¹

The Nabucco project, which offers transportation of natural gas to European countries bypassing Russia via Turkey, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Austria, may compete with Russia's South Stream. Nabucco gas pipeline project worth approximately $ 7.9 billion. The euro will be a continuation of another gas pipeline - Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum. It is planned to build an additional 3,300 km stretch from Turkey's Erzurum to a gas storage facility in Austria's Baumgarten. Two-thirds of the pipeline will run through Turkish territory, underscoring Turkey's key role in the project.

The EU ranks the Nabucco project as a priority and pays special attention to dialogue with Turkey, mainly focusing on the selection and evaluation of transit pipeline projects that will link the EU with the Middle East and the Caspian Basin and Central Asia. ¹²

On July 13, 2009, an agreement on the construction of the Nabucco gas pipeline was signed in Ankara. The document was signed by the heads of government of Turkey, Austria and Hungary, as well as energy companies of Bulgaria and Romania. The ceremony was attended by representatives of about 20 countries and the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso. He said that the signing of the agreement is "an important step not only in strengthening energy security in Europe, but also for all countries in the region." ¹³ In his opinion, the project will create new ties between Turkey and Europe, as well as the countries of the Caspian basin and Central Asia, and will bring Ankara-EU relations to a new level.

It is estimated that Nabucco will be able to supply up to 5-10% of the gas required by the EU. Construction of the pipeline is scheduled to start in 2011. In 2014, its capacity will be 8 billion ^m3, and from 2018, Nabucco will be able to supply 31 billion m3 annually to the EU, bypassing Russia. ^m3 of gas from the Caspian basin and the Middle East. Possible gas suppliers include Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Iran and Egypt.¹⁴ Despite serious competition between the projects, Gazprom estimates that by 2020-2025, the Company will be able to Europe will need an additional $ 200 billion. ^m3 of gas per year. In this regard, Russia does not deny the possibility of implementing such gas pipelines as Nabucco, because Europe's projected demand for additional gas volumes makes it possible to implement several projects at once.¹⁵

Turkey's close cooperation with the EU ⁱⁿ the energy sector contributes to the preparation of the Turkish energy structure for the country's possible future membership in the EU16.

Turkey is of considerable interest to the EU as a transit country. Due to its position, it is a natural bridge between the energy-rich countries of the Middle East, the Caspian basin and energy consumers in the EU. Ankara aims to turn the country into a reliable corridor for energy transmission between East and West. According to some experts, European countries ' concerns about dependence on Russian energy sources and Turkey's geopolitical advantage provide the country with a new set of opportunities that can be used as a trump card to accelerate the process of its admission to ^the EU17.

The implementation of projects for the construction of various transit pipelines through Turkey is not only foreign exchange earnings for the country, but also an opportunity to become one of the leading actors in energy transportation and a reliable intermediary for the EU between the Middle East, the Caspian basin, the Caucasus and the Black Sea.

Turkish politicians also believe that close energy ties between the countries of the region can help resolve some political conflicts.

On the other hand, the construction of new pipelines will help reduce the volume of cargo traffic through the Bosphorus and, accordingly, reduce the risk of environmental disasters in the region. Istanbul is the economic center of Turkey, producing a significant part of GDP (21.2%)¹⁸, which determines Turkey's interest in any options to reduce the burden on the Bosphorus.

POSSIBLE SUPPLIERS ARE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST AND EUROPE...

The implementation of oil and gas pipeline projects that have advantages for the EU and Turkey is hindered by serious political, economic, geographical, and legal problems both on the part of resource suppliers and other interested parties.

In Iraq, the Americans, after overthrowing the regime of Saddam Hussein in 2003, took a strong position in the oil and gas sector of the country. The EU's position has been weakened.

In 2004. The EU has offered Iraq cooperation and the creation of a group of energy experts. Experts are working out possible ways to supply Iraqi natural gas to Europe via Turkey. In this regard, the Energy Ministers of Turkey and Iraq signed a corresponding agreement in August 2007 ¹⁹.

Tehran is also interested in supplying its natural gas to Europe via Turkey. Iran is rich in energy resources: gas reserves account for 15.7% of the world's (2nd after Russia in the world, on the 3rd-Qatar), oil reserves - 11.2% (according to British Petroleum, 2nd place in the world* after Saudi Arabia)²⁰. Turkey has been importing Iranian natural gas since 2001, but so far only for domestic consumption. The two governments signed an agreement on the transit of Iranian blue fuel through Turkey to Europe in 2004,21 and a memorandum of understanding on the oil and gas sector in ^November 2009. According to this document, Turkey will receive the right to sell transit gas in the amount of $ 17.5 billion. ^m3 per year from the world's largest South Pars field ²².

President of the Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis Sinan Ohan, analyzing the agreements reached between Turkey and Iran, comes to the conclusion that the map of Nabucco will change. According to the researcher, if earlier the main goal of the West and Europe was to deliver gas from Azerbaijan and Central Asia, now the issue of obtaining Iranian gas with the prospect of further connecting Iraqi and Egyptian gas to this transit route through Turkey has come to the fore ²³. Back in March 2004, Cairo and Ankara signed an agreement on the supply of Egyptian natural gas gas supply via Turkey to Europe. Part of the gas pipeline linking the two countries was built from Egypt to the city of Homs in Syria. Construction of ^{the final stage of the Homs-Kilis gas pipeline (Turkey) will be completed in 20124}

If Iran is actively involved in the implementation of Nabucco, it will need to increase its natural gas production. However, sanctions against Iran prevent Western firms from investing in the modernization of the Iranian oil and gas complex, which, in turn, hinders the development of new fields in the country. Due to the 30-year conflict with the United States and the complication of relations with the world community due to the development of its own nuclear program, the country cannot properly use rich energy sources.

Back in 1998, during the discussion of alternative routes for the transit of Caspian oil to world markets, Iran presented the project of an oil pipeline to its terminals in the Persian Gulf. The cost of the project was 6 times lower than the cost of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project. This route would open up Iran's access to promising Asian oil markets. However, US economic sanctions against Tehran prevented American companies from transporting oil through this pipeline. That is why the Iranian project, with all its advantages, was not implemented ²⁵.

* The US Department of Energy estimates that Iran ranks 3rd in terms of proven oil reserves after Canada, but the main reserves in this country are located in bituminous sands, the development of which in the present century is technologically complex and expensive. ed.).

...FROM THE CASPIAN BASIN

Although the Caspian littoral States support the concept of diversifying the ways of delivering their energy resources to markets, there are a number of obstacles to forming a common policy on energy supply to Europe. In particular, the unresolved status of the Caspian Sea, mainly due to disagreements over the principles of division and use of natural resources located at the bottom of ^the Caspian Sea26.

The uncertainty of the international legal status of the Caspian Sea hinders the construction of pipelines connecting Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan with Azerbaijan.

Nevertheless, the EU independently seeks to establish a direct dialogue with the Caspian countries, but so far Europe has not defined a framework for such cooperation, except for the Inogate program27, under which the European Union has provided 56 million euros in grants to the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The EU has been negotiating with Kazakhstan since December 2006 to fill the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline with Kazakh oil.

At the same time, Russia would like to buy all the natural gas produced in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan at European prices and supply it to Europe via South Stream.

Experts believe that putting one of the projects into operation earlier than putting the other into operation will postpone the implementation of the rival project for the medium term. However, senior Turkish officials point out that gas consumption in Europe is growing at such a high rate and that circumstances require not only the commissioning of the two mentioned gas pipelines, but also the construction of additional gas routes. As a result, the implementation of competing gas projects in Turkey will significantly strengthen its influence.

Based on this, Turkey agreed to the construction of the South Stream pipeline in its territorial waters under the Black Sea during Vladimir Putin's working visit to Turkey in ^{August 2009.28}

Today, Moscow still considers the Nabucco project a competitor to South Stream, but recognizes it as a full-fledged part of the Euro-Asian energy system. "Even the construction of South Stream does not close Nabucco in principle," Putin said. Nevertheless, the Russian prime Minister pointed out the weak point of the Nabucco project - the problem of filling the pipeline with gas.

According to a number of Turkish researchers, the interests of both the West and Russia in the" energy chess " can be observed with a realistic and pragmatic approach, which is required in the context of globalization30.

¹ World Energy Outlook Executive Summary 2008. OECD/International Energy Agency. Paris, 2008, p. 4 - 5.

² Euractiv-European Union Information Website http://www.euractiv.com.tr/enerji/link-dossier/enerjiye-bak

^{Leblond D.} 3 European gas demand increases by 2,1% in 2008 // Oil and Gas Journal - Online - http://www.ogj.com/display article/356403/120/ARTCL/none/GenIn/1/European-gas-demand-increases-by-21-in- 2008, 17.03.2009.

^{Parr M.} 4 The European Union's Energy Mix: Aiming for diversity // Euractiv-European Union Information Website http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/eu-energy-mix-aiming-diversity/article-163228, 17.04.2007.

⁵ Energy Dependency // Europe's Energy Portal - www.energy.eu/#dependancy

^{Kanygin P. S.} 6 Energy security of the European Union and Russia's Interests. Dissertation ... Candidate of Economic Sciences, Moscow, 2007, p. 28.

⁷ See: Keskin M. M. Stratejik Acidan AB Enerji Politikasi ve Uluslararasi Guvenlik Sistemine Etkisi (EU Energy Policy and its impact on the international security system). Avrupa Birligi Anabilim Dab. Doktora tezi, Izmir, 2006, s. 48 - 83.

⁸ Presidency Conclusions of the Brussels European Council, 8 - 9 March 2007. Brussels, 2007, p. 11.

^{Portnyagina I. M.} 9 Energy geopolitics of the Russian Federation: the role of the Caspian region. Dissertation... Ph. D. in Political Science, 2007, p. 123.

¹⁰ South Stream gas pipeline project. Help / / RIA Novosti - http://www.rian.ru/gas_spravki/20090111/158893849.html

^{Zhukov S. V.} 11 Mirovoi rynok nefti i gaza: iglii i strategii [The Global oil and Gas Market: Players and Strategies]. Moscow, IMEMO RAS, 2008, p.69.

¹² Presidency Conclusions of the Brussels European Council.., p. 18.

¹³ Kommersant, 14.07.2009.

¹⁴ Nabucco Gas Pipeline Project, Markets and Sources for Nabucco -http://www.nabucco-pipeline.com/company/markets-sources-for-nabucco/markets-so urces-for-nabucco.html

¹⁵ http://south-stream.info/index.php?id=9

¹⁶ On 3 October 2005, the EU countries began preliminary negotiations with Turkey on its full membership in the EU. There has been no precedent in the history of the EU for a Muslim country to join.

¹⁷ См., например: Keskin M.M. Stratejik Acidan.., Tuncay U. The EU Energy Policy and the Importance of Energy in Turkey's Accession to the EU: Thesis for Ms. D. in European Politics Studies and International Affairs. Istanbul, 2005.

¹⁸ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Istanbul

¹⁹ Turkiye'nin Enerji Stratejisi (Energy Strategy of Turkey). T. C. Disisleri Bakanbga Enerji, Su ve Cevre Isleri Genel Mudur Yard3mc3bga (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey-Department of Energy, Water and Environment). Ankara, 2009, s. 5.

²⁰ BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008 -http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and _publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/ statistical_review_of_world_energy_fuh_review_2008.pdf

^{Krylov A. B.} 21 Energososteli Kaspiya i russo-turkie otnosheniya [Energy carriers of the Caspian Sea and Russian-Turkish relations]. See: Geopolitics of the Caspian region [Ed. by D. B. Malyshev]. Moscow, IMEMO RAS, 2005, p. 54.

²² Turkey finds gas for Nabucco in Iran / / Iran news - http://www.iran.ru/rus/news_iran.php?act=news_by_id&news_id-59829

²³ In the light of the Turkish-Iranian agreements, the Nabucco map will change / / Iran news - http://www.iran.ru/rus/news_iran.php?act-news_by_id&_n-1&news_id-60101

²⁴ BOTAS 2008 Sektor Raporu (Turkish State Pipeline Transportation Company "BOTAS": Sector Report 2008) Ankara, 2008, p. 24.

^{Avakov R. M., Lisov A. T.} 25 Rossiya i Zakavkazye: realii nezavisimosti i novoe partnerstvo [Russia and Transcaucasia: the Realities of Independence and New Partnership]. 2000, p. 194.

Geopolitika Kaspiyskogo regiona [Geopolitics of the Caspian region]. 2007, pp. 88-89.

²⁷ Inogate is a program of international cooperation in the field of energy between the European Union, the Black and Caspian littoral States and their neighbors.

²⁸ Turkey supported South Stream / / Rosbalt News Agency - http://www.rosbalt.ru/2009/08/06/661418.html. 06.08.2009.

²⁹ Putin managed to bribe Turkey / / Rosbalt News Agency - http://www.rosbalt.ru/2009/08/07/661721.html. 07.08.2009.

³⁰ See, for example: Turkiye Uluslararasi Iliskiler ve Stratejik Analizler Merkezi'nin 28.01.2009'da duzenledigi panel: Turkiye ile Rusya Arassnda Enerji Alanindaki Cok Boyutlu Iliskiler (Materials of the public discussion held by the Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic Analyses on January 28, 2009. Turkish-Russian multilateral relations in the energy sector) // Ekoenerji. 2009, N 26, s. 68-79.

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